Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 14

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jocay (Manta)

Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Ecuavisa, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Manta		Emelec

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.25	Watch
	2.8	3	2.3
	2.98	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.22	3.25	2.41
	2.97	3.24	2.39	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.3
	3	3.15	2.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.79)	3.11 ↓ (3.13)	2.33 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manta
31%

Draw
29.6%

Emelec
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

29.9%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29.1%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manta than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	11.1%	77.8%

Manta - Emelec Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Manta will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Emelec will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Emelec: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Emelec (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Zambrano F. (G) 45. Cuero I. 16. Quintero D. 24. Moscarelli O. 31. Mina G. 23. Medina A. 70. Nazareno J. 6. Jimenez J. 20. Chala J. 17. Angulo J. 19. Alman J. (C)	12. Ortiz P. (G) 14. Caicedo R. 27. Leon F. (C) 4. Segura E. 3. Guerrico I. 5. Mina A. 6. Griffith V. 8. Napoli G. 10. Pizzini F. 7. Klimowicz L. 19. Ruiz J.
Substitutes
18. Beltramone E. 9. Blanco J. 57. Burbano S. 7. Cabezas D. 33. Castillo A. 1. Chavez W. (G) 4. Nazareno J. 21. Ortiz M. 99. Pico E. (G) 52. Rialpe J. 27. Troya J. 8. Valencia M.	18. Carabali M. 15. Fragozo L. 20. Gonzaga J. 80. Herrera O. 25. Narvaez R. 16. Quintero S. 51. Valencia S. 1. Valero M. (G) 24. Viteri A.
Coaches
Carvajal Burgos J. E.	Sanchez V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Medina A. ↓, Valencia M. ↑,
59', Pizzini F. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
59', Napoli G. ↓, Quintero S. ↑,
69', Chala J. ↓, Blanco J. ↑,
80', Angulo J. ↓, Troya J. ↑,
84', Nazareno J. 🟨,
84', Griffith V. ↓, Viteri A. ↑,
90+2', Valencia M. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manta won 0.

Manta has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Emelec has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Manta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Manta won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 13:37. (average 0.8:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Manta won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:18. (average 0.6:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Emelec - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.65%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manta FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.05.26	Manta - Deportivo Macará	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Manta	1:1 ✺
27.04.26	Manta - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Leones del Norte - Manta	3:0 ✺
19.04.26	Manta - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 LTWLL
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.05.26	Emelec - Libertad Loja	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Leones del Norte - Emelec	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Emelec - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
21.04.26	Técnico Universitario - Emelec	0:1 ✺
17.04.26	Emelec - Guayaquil City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.07.25	Manta - Emelec	2:4
06.04.25	Emelec - Manta	1:1
Club Friendly
25.01.25	Emelec - Manta	2:2
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
27.11.21	Emelec - Manta	4:0
18.07.21	Manta - Emelec	0:4
07.12.14	Emelec - Manta	2:1
10.10.14	Manta - Emelec	1:3

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