Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Pavlodar)

Referee: Gorda D. (Kaz)


	Ertis Pavlodar		Zhetysu

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.92	3.3	3.75	Watch
	2.04	3.33	3.86
	2.03	3.27	3.46	Watch
	1.91	3.1	3.75
	1.97	3.39	3.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.66)	3.28 ↓ (3.77)	3.73 ↓ (4.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ertis Pavlodar
46.9%

Draw
28.2%

Zhetysu
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

24.4%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

25.4%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ertis Pavlodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ertis Pavlodar's form might have worsened.

Zhetysu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ertis Pavlodar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zhetysu than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zhetysu, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ertis Pavlodar - Zhetysu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Botnar V. (G) 27. Nechaev D. 26. Mbodj M. 33. Ibrahim F. 22. Stephen G. 6. Shimamura Y. 8. Zharynbetov S. (C) 7. Klimovich V. 98. Sedko P. 18. Shvyrev V. 10. Agimanov T.	88. Sicaci S. (G) 11. Dobay A. 4. Kashken D. 15. Pajovic J. 5. Orynbassar R. 23. Baltabekov A. 9. Abzalov S. 8. Adakhadziev A. 7. Muzhikov S. (C) 10. Mosiashvili T. 77. Anuarbekov N.
Substitutes
13. Baybosynov N. 21. Buranchiev A. 12. Karimov R. 4. Khadarkevich R. 15. Nyrkov D. 9. Omatay M. 97. Poe J. 19. Popov A. 14. Raskatov V. 1. Rikhard M. (G) 5. Toleuov B. 17. Turlybek M.	2. Aslan R. 14. Birkurmanov M. 1. Egorov A. (G) 30. Ertis S. 90. Jovanovic S. 19. Kovacevic M. 17. Nurbol N. 22. Podymskiy D. (G) 57. Umaniyazov M. 21. Zhakipbayev M. 27. Zivanovic M.
Coaches
Alshevskiy K.	Nurdauletov K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Adakhadziev A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Agimanov T. ↓, Poe J. ↑,
46', Shvyrev V. ↓, Turlybek M. ↑,
58', Mbodj M. ↓, Toleuov B. ↑,
62', Toleuov B. 🟨,
69', Shimamura Y. ↓, Omatay M. ↑,
73', Muzhikov S. ↓, Zhakipbayev M. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Sedko P. ⚽,
75', Abzalov S. ↓, Jovanovic S. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 2, Zivanovic M. ⚽, Zhakipbayev M. (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Zhetysu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ertis is a strong favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ertis won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26
16	Zhetysu Taldykorgan	26	5	7	14	26:44	-18	22

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
12.04.26	Okzhetpes - Ertis Pavlodar	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Altai Semey	1:0 ✺
20.03.26	Kyzylzhar - Ertis Pavlodar	2:2 ✺
16.03.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Ordabasy - Ertis Pavlodar	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWTTT
- FC Zhetysu
Kazakh Premier League
11.04.26	Zhetysu - Yelimay Semey	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
08.04.26	Karshiga - Zhetysu	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
05.04.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Zhetysu	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Zhetysu - Kairat	0:0 ✺
16.03.26	Tobol Kostanay - Zhetysu	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.4 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
05.10.19	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	2:1
13.07.19	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	4:0
01.05.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhetysu	0:3
19.08.18	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0
01.07.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhetysu	0:2
22.04.18	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	2:1
25.06.16	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhetysu	3:1

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