Match Info

Persian Gulf Pro League - Round 23

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday

Location: Azadi Stadium (Tehran)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	Shabake 3


	Esteghlal		Fajr Sepasi

	1	X	2
	1.54	3.32	5.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.6)	3.32 ↑ (3.2)	5.9 ↑ (5.7)

The best margin for this event is 12%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Esteghlal
58%

Draw
26.9%

Fajr Sepasi
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

28.1%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

29.8%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Esteghlal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Fajr Sepasi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Esteghlal than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fajr Sepasi than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Adan A. (G) 2. Hardani S. 5. Ashurmatov R. 19. Fallah S. 27. Goudarzi H. 4. Cheshmi R. . Mohammadi A. 70. Asani J. 17. Munir El Haddadi 20. Koushki A. 11. Saharkhizan S.	98. Rezaei A. (G) 11. Moradi M. 3. Helichi A. 21. Azhir M. 15. Mousavi M. 19. Rostami Y. 14. Niknafs Z. 66. Motlaghzadeh M. 4. Jafarikia S. 78. Sharifi M. 17. Shahabi H.
Substitutes
23. Aghasi A. 88. Ahmadi M. 7. Azadi M. R. 80. Eslami M. 76. Farabbasi H. (G) . Ghaedi M. 87. Gholizadeh E. 66. Saadavi Z. . Touranian S. 15. Zamani A.	22. Akbarabadi A. 90. Ashouri S. 77. Babaei P. 9. Bozorg S. 30. Mohammadreza J. . Moradmand M. 6. Rigi M. 12. Vosoughifard A. 7. Zare S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Saharkhizan S. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 1, Sharifi M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Moradi M. ↓, Rigi M. ↑,
71', Saharkhizan S. ↓, Gholizadeh E. ↑,
71', Koushki A. ↓, Eslami M. ↑,
75', Sharifi M. ↓, Babaei P. ↑,
75', Shahabi H. ↓, Ashouri S. ↑,
80', Rostami Y. 🟨,
82', 2 - 1, Cheshmi R. ⚽, Hardani S. (A),
84', Niknafs Z. ↓, Bozorg S. ↑,
86', Munir El Haddadi ↓, Zamani A. ↑,
90+6', Bozorg S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Esteghlal won 5.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Esteghlal is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Esteghlal won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:2. (average 2.4:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Esteghlal won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 1.3:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Fajr Sepasi	6	1	4	1	3:3	0	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Esteghlal FC
Iran Pro League
22.02.26	Mes Rafsanjan - Esteghlal	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
17.02.26	Al-Hussein Irbid - Esteghlal	3:2 ✺
10.02.26	Esteghlal - Al-Hussein Irbid	0:1 ✺
Iran Pro League
05.02.26	Esteghlal - Shams Azar Qazvin	3:2 ✺
01.02.26	Paykan - Esteghlal	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLLWL
- Fajr Sepasi
Iran Pro League
20.02.26	Fajr Sepasi - Shams Azar Qazvin	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Fajr Sepasi	1:0 ✺
06.02.26	Fajr Sepasi - Tractor Sazi	2:1 ✺
02.02.26	Zob Ahan - Fajr Sepasi	2:1 ✺
28.01.26	Fajr Sepasi - Kheybar Khorramabad	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Iran Pro League
26.10.25	Fajr Sepasi - Esteghlal	0:3
23.02.22	Esteghlal - Fajr Sepasi	1:0
Iran Hazfi Cup
17.10.19	Esteghlal - Fajr Sepasi	3:0 ET
Iran Pro League
14.12.13	Esteghlal - Fajr Sepasi	1:0
06.08.13	Fajr Sepasi - Esteghlal	2:4
15.02.13	Fajr Sepasi - Esteghlal	0:5
21.09.12	Esteghlal - Fajr Sepasi	0:0

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