Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 15

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday


	Estepona		Puente Genil

	1	X	2
	2.42	2.98	2.78
	2.44	3.02	3.03
	2.48	2.93	2.92	Watch
	2.45	2.88	2.8
	2.44	2.88	2.83
	2.42	3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.01)	2.95 ↓ (3.05)	2.88 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estepona
37.4%

Draw
30.9%

Puente Genil
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

29.7%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

28.7%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estepona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estepona's form might have worsened.

Puente Genil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Puente Genil's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estepona than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estepona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puente Genil than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Puente Genil, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Estepona - Puente Genil Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Tato R. ⚽,
45', 1 - 1, Araiza A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90', 1 - 2, Montenegro T. ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 14 in the zone Relegation).

Estepona is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Puente Genil has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Estepona
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
07.12.25	Melilla - Estepona	3:0 ✺
30.11.25	Estepona - Xerez Deportivo	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Águilas - Estepona	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Estepona - Antoniano	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	CD Extremadura - Estepona	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Puente Genil FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
07.12.25	Puente Genil - Almeria B	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Puente Genil - Melilla	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Xerez Deportivo - Puente Genil	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Puente Genil - CD Extremadura	1:1 ✺
12.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Puente Genil	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTLTL

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