Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 8

Date: 12 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco (Lorca)


	Lorca Deportiva		Puente Genil

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	2.92	3.75
	1.95	3.06	4.18
	2.39	2.92	3.01	Watch
	1.96	2.99	3.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.37)	2.97 ↑ (2.88)	3.72 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorca Deportiva
44.4%

Draw
30.9%

Puente Genil
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

31.7%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

30.9%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorca Deportiva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorca Deportiva's performance.

Puente Genil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Puente Genil might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puente Genil than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	33.3%	22.2%

Lorca Deportiva - Puente Genil Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Lorca Deportiva will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Puente Genil will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lorca Deportiva: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lorca Deportiva (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Naranjo J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Lorca Deportiva may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lorca Deportiva is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
08.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Minera	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Estepona - Lorca Deportiva	1:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Lorca Deportiva - Almería	0:2 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
19.10.25	Linares Deportivo - Lorca Deportiva	1:3 ✺
12.10.25	Lorca Deportiva - CD Extremadura	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 WWLWT
- Puente Genil FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
09.11.25	Antoniano - Puente Genil	4:0 ✺
02.11.25	Puente Genil - Águilas	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Puente Genil - Cartagena	0:1 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
19.10.25	Puente Genil - Real Jaén	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Puente Genil	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWLTL

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