Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 14

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro (Melilla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Television Melilla


	Melilla		Estepona

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.1	3.7
	1.97	3.14	4.09
	1.93	3.18	3.92	Watch
	1.96	3.1	3.76
	1.94	3.1	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.02)	3.12 ↑ (3)	3.89 ↑ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melilla
47.1%

Draw
29.3%

Estepona
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

30.3%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

25.1%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Estepona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melilla that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estepona than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Estepona could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Melilla - Estepona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
65', 1 - 0, Chavarria M. ⚽,
70', 2 - 0, Chavarria M. ⚽,
80', 3 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Melilla is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Estepona has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Melilla might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Melilla won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Melilla won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
30.11.25	Puente Genil - Melilla	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Melilla	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Melilla - Xerez Deportivo	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Águilas - Melilla	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Melilla - CD Extremadura	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TLTLT
- CD Estepona
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
30.11.25	Estepona - Xerez Deportivo	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Águilas - Estepona	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Estepona - Antoniano	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	CD Extremadura - Estepona	3:2 ✺
02.11.25	Estepona - Lorca Deportiva	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
24.08.25	Estepona - Melilla	0:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
19.03.23	Estepona - Melilla	1:0
30.10.22	Melilla - Estepona	0:0

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