Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Italy	Como TV
Portugal	Canal 11


	Vitoria Guimarães		AVS

	1	X	2
	1.42	3.8	7.5
	1.43	4.15	7.4
	1.43	4.33	8.21
	1.5	4.14	6.2	Watch
	1.44	3.7	6.5
	1.45	4.05	7.6
	1.42	4.2	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.5)	4.05 ↑ (3.78)	7.34 ↑ (6.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
64.4%

Draw
22.9%

AVS
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

24.1%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

22.5%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Vitoria Guimarães - AVS Predictions

Users Predictions: Vitoria Guimarães will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vitoria Guimarães will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Charles Silva (G) 2. Maga 4. Rivas Viondi O. 26. Abascal R. 17. Lebedenko O. 30. Nogueira G. 6. Mitrovic M. 19. Camara O. 20. Samu (C) 48. Saviolo N. 7. Oliveira N.	93. Simao (G) 2. Spencer D. 33. Santos A. 3. Paulo Vitor 12. Rivas L. 19. Galletto T. 15. Grau J. (C) 23. Mendonca G. 11. Akinsola T. 20. Duarte D. 9. Escobar J.
Substitutes
18. Arcanjo T. 22. Blanco F. 21. Felix V. 98. Lucas Furtado (G) 90. Ndoye A. 80. Rocha R. 23. Sousa D. 66. Strata T. 28. Thiago Balieiro	27. Algobia A. 99. Joao Goncalves (G) 24. Kiki 17. Lourenco B. 77. Machado A. 21. Neiva G. 18. Nene 26. Ponck 88. Trigueira (G)
Coaches
Pinto L.	Sousa J. P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Spencer D. 🟨,
28', Rivas Viondi O. ↓, Thiago Balieiro ↑,
41', 0 - 1, Akinsola T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nogueira G. ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
49', Simao 🟨,
56', Camara O. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Mendonca G. ↓, Algobia A. ↑,
58', Paulo Vitor ↓, Neiva G. ↑,
59', Lebedenko O. ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
61', Galletto T. 🟨,
64', Galletto T. ↓, Ponck ↑,
64', Spencer D. ↓, Barbosa R. ↑,
70', Maga ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
85', Duarte D. ↓, Lourenco B. ↑,
90', Akinsola T. 🟨,
90+8', Thiago Balieiro 🟨,
90+9', Rivas L. 🟨,

Preview

Guimarães is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

AVS has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Guimarães may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Guimarães is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Guimarães: Beni (International duty) Gustavo (Injury)

There will not play in AVS: Molina G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Guimarães: Saviolo N. (Injury)

There are questionable in AVS: Neiva G. (Injury)

We predict that Guimarães will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:2. (average 1.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 2.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
08.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
04.12.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
28.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Mortágua	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 WTWWW
- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	6:0 ✺
06.12.25	AVS - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	AVS - Académico de Viseu	1:0 penalties ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	AVS - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
28.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	4:0
Club Friendly
20.07.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	1:1
Liga Portugal
01.02.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	2:0
25.08.24	AVS - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0

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