Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 4

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Macedo C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Mexico	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Nacional		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.10	3.10	Watch
	2.40	3.20	2.95
	2.28	3.30	3.10	Watch
	2.47	3.24	3.22
	2.34	3.29	3.12	Watch
	2.40	3.10	3.15
	2.46	3.21	3.21	Watch
	2.37	3.25	3.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.42)	3.21 ↓ (3.23)	3.11 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
39.9%

Draw
29.6%

Estrela da Amadora
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

29.2%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Nacional - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Estrela will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marin R. (G) 34. Leo Santos (C) 6. Matheus Dias 38. Ze Vitor 52. Wesley Gasolina 28. Liziero 22. Soares F. 21. Kokolo W. 8. Baeza M. 10. Daniel Junior 99. Pablo Ruan	24. Leo Linck (G) 21. Scholze M. 30. Luan Patrick 5. Lekovic S. (C) 55. Rafa Soares 14. Zvonarek L. 39. Doue G. 8. Robinho 99. Marcus A. 37. Antonetti L. 10. Stoica I.
Substitutes
88. Deivison 2. de la Cruz D. I. 20. Djalo M. 31. Dongmo D. 11. Gavriel S. 33. Goncalves C. 7. Jensen M. 13. Joao Goncalves (G) 23. Mateus Iseppe 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 17. Nava F. 9. Obando A.	80. Alisson Souza 4. Bernardo Schappo 79. Chernev A. 17. Encada J. 22. Grilo D. (G) 19. Joan Jordan 3. Mincarelli L. 71. Pedro Vanga E. 51. Pinto D. (G) 78. Serra S. 93. Souza B. 9. van Hooijdonk S.
Coaches
Joao Giao	Miguel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Wesley Gasolina ⚽, Kokolo W. (A),
40', Soares F. ↓, Djalo M. ↑,
45', Ze Vitor 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Stoica I. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', Kokolo W. 🟨,
62', 1 - 2, Marcus A. ⚽, Doue G. (A),
66', 2 - 2, Pablo Ruan ⚽, Liziero (A),
67', Robinho ↓, Joan Jordan ↑,
69', Daniel Junior ↓, Gavriel S. ↑,
69', Pablo Ruan ↓, Obando A. ↑,
72', Stoica I. ↓, Souza B. ↑,
78', Kokolo W. ↓, Jensen M. ↑,
79', Wesley Gasolina ↓, de la Cruz D. I. ↑,
83', 2 - 3, Antonetti L. ⚽, Doue G. (A),
86', Antonetti L. 🟨,
89', Doue G. ↓, Bernardo Schappo ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.

Recent form of Nacional has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Nacional has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Nacional: Ulisses (Broken calfbone)

There are questionable in Nacional: Jose Gomes (Inactive) Nourani M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Estrela: Jansson K. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14:14	0	10
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 38.88%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
23.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Nacional - Estoril Praia	2:0 ✺
10.08.26	Santa Clara - Nacional	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Marítimo - Nacional	1:0 ✺
23.07.26	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWTLL
- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
15.08.26	Alverca - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
08.08.26	Estrela da Amadora - Sporting Lisbon	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Estrela da Amadora - Al-Nassr Riyadh	4:2 ✺
23.07.26	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
16.05.26	Braga - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.5 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
23.07.26	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	2:0
Liga Portugal
04.04.26	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	2:0
09.11.25	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	1:1
06.04.25	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	0:1
10.11.24	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	2:0
Portuguese Liga 2
21.05.23	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	0:1
15.01.23	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	0:1

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