Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 5

Date: 6 June 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano de Mérida (Mérida)

Referee: Hinestroza Romana J. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4


	Estudiantes de Mérida		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	10	6	1.25	Watch
	11	6	1.25
	10	5.75	1.27
	10.96	6.09	1.25
	12	5.25	1.22
	11.25	6.1	1.24	Watch
	10	5.8	1.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.74 ↑ (5.23)	5.86 ↑ (4.17)	1.25 ↓ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estudiantes de Mérida
8.7%

Draw
16%

Fortaleza
75.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18%

22.6%

59.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.6%

22%

60.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estudiantes de Mérida has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estudiantes de Mérida's form might have worsened.

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fortaleza's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estudiantes de Mérida than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estudiantes de Mérida, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fortaleza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Estudiantes de Mérida - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Estudiantes Mérida will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Velasquez B. (G) 6. Guaramato M. 4. Doldan J. 10. Gomez J. 3. Marquez Torres J. A. 9. Canelon N. 20. Paez J. 14. Rodriguez Perez A. D. 23. Martinez D. 28. Zorrilla E. 26. Paredes J.	1. Joao Ricardo (G) 20. Dudu 5. Marcelo Benevenuto 4. Titi 22. Yago Pikachu 10. Lucas Crispim 15. Zanocelo 17. Ze Welison 27. Calebe 88. Lucas Sasha 18. Romero S.
Substitutes
11. Castrillo R. 7. Flores C. 39. Giro G. 2. Labrador O. 13. Materan G. 17. Matos A. 30. Paez A. 12. Pena A. (G) 29. Pena W. 25. Ramirez Holguin W. S. 38. Uzcategui S.	31. Amorim 14. Bernardo Schappo 19. Britez E. 8. Caio Alexandre 3. Ceballos B. 35. Hercules 13. Lucas Esteves 9. Lucero J. 30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 7. Pochettino T. 91. Thiago Galhardo 2. Tinga
Coaches
Canas A.	Vojvoda J. P.

Preview

Recent matches Estudiantes de Mérida is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fortaleza is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Estudiantes de Mérida could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Fortaleza have a series of home games.

In this match Fortaleza is absolute favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Estudiantes de Mérida won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estudiantes de Mérida
Copa Sudamericana
25.05.23	Estudiantes de Mérida - Palestino	1:5 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
21.05.23	Carabobo - Estudiantes de Mérida	2:0 ✺
14.05.23	Estudiantes de Mérida - Mineros de Guayana	3:1 ✺
07.05.23	Angostura - Estudiantes de Mérida	2:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.05.23	Fortaleza - Estudiantes de Mérida	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWWL
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
03.06.23	Fortaleza - Bahia	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Fortaleza - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.05.23	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.05.23	Fortaleza - San Lorenzo	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.05.23	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
04.05.23	Fortaleza - Estudiantes de Mérida	6:1

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