Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 15

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fortaleza		Bahia

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.45	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.8
	2.92	3.1	2.48
	3.08	3.24	2.56
	2.95	3.10	2.56	Watch
	2.7	3	2.75
	3.32	3.15	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.5)	3.13 ↑ (3.1)	2.57 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
32.3%

Draw
30.5%

Bahia
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

30.2%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

29.6%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortaleza's form might have worsened.

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.9%	25%	7.1%

Fortaleza - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 18 - 69.2%). Bahia will win (votes: 2 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 51.5% – 86.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Bahia (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Fortaleza (2.08) (votes: 5 - 71.4%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Bahia (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
15. Magrao (G) 33. Britez E. 13. Kuscevic B. 3. Avila G. 16. Diogo Barbosa 5. Pereira M. 88. Lucas Sasha 7. Pochettino T. 11. Marinho 9. Lucero J. 26. Breno Lopes	22. Marcos Felipe (G) 2. Gilberto 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 19. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 7. Ademir 17. Rodriguez L. 16. Erick Pulga
Substitutes
19. Allanzinho 27. Bareiro A. 18. Deyverson 8. Emmanuel Martinez 80. Herrera J. 38. Lucca Prior 14. Mancuso E. 20. Matheus Rossetto 2. Tinga 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 22. Yago Pikachu 17. Ze Welison	13. Arias S. 8. Cauly 3. Gabriel Xavier 25. Iago Borduchi 68. Jota 37. Kayky 15. Michel Araujo 26. Nicolas Acevedo 11. Rodrigo 96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 77. Tiago 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Alves R.	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Diogo Barbosa 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Marinho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rodriguez L. ↓, Cauly ↑,
51', Erick Pulga 🟨,
51', Gilberto 🟨,
51', Breno Lopes 🟨,
59', Lucero J. 🟨,
63', Ramos S. 🟨,
65', Pereira M. 🟨,
68', Pochettino T. ↓, Emmanuel Martinez ↑,
68', Britez E. ↓, Mancuso E. ↑,
69', Marinho ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
75', Jean Lucas ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
75', Erick Pulga ↓, Kayky ↑,
76', Caio Alexandre ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
78', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,
79', Lucero J. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Rodrigo ⚽,
84', Breno Lopes ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
89', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.

Fortaleza is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Bahia is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bahia has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco (Tendon Injury) David Luiz (Thigh Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Erick (Hamstring Injury) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Rezende (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Inactive) Gustavo Mancha (Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Willian Jose (Ankle Injury)

We predict that Bahia will win today's game, with odds of 2.86.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:29. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
13.07.25	Fortaleza - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.07.25	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.06.25	Fortaleza - Santos	2:3 ✺
01.06.25	Flamengo - Fortaleza	5:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.05.25	Racing - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- EC Bahia
Copa Sudamericana
15.07.25	Bahia - América de Cali	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.07.25	Bahia - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.07.25	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.06.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.06.25	Bahia - Náutico Capibaribe	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.07.25	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.24	Fortaleza - Bahia	4:1
13.06.24	Bahia - Fortaleza	1:0
21.10.23	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:0
03.06.23	Fortaleza - Bahia	0:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
14.02.23	Bahia - Fortaleza	0:3
19.02.22	Fortaleza - Bahia	3:1

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