Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 28

Date: 15 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Fortaleza		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.32	3.2	3.05
	2.4	3.37	3.18
	2.25	3.32	3.21	Watch
	2.38	3.31	3.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.18)	3.29 ↑ (3.24)	3.14 ↓ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
40.7%

Draw
28.9%

Vasco da Gama
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

29.1%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

30.3%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Vasco will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Vasco (1.57) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Fortaleza (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vasco da Gama will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 20%). Vasco (votes: 8 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Brenno (G) 14. Mancuso E. 33. Britez E. 13. Kuscevic B. 3. Avila G. 29. Rodrigo 88. Lucas Sasha 7. Pochettino T. 10. Guzman Y. 26. Breno Lopes 9. Lucero J. (C)	1. Leo Jardim (G) 3. Tche Tche 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton 25. Hugo Moura 88. Cauan Barros 10. Coutinho (C) 11. Gomez C. A. 77. Rayan 17. Moreira N.
Substitutes
27. Bareiro A. 18. Deyverson 16. Diogo Barbosa 34. Gazal 80. Herrera J. 23. Leite H. (G) 11. Marinho 20. Matheus Rossetto 96. Moises 70. Pablo Roberto 30. Pierre 22. Yago Pikachu	13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 19. GB 43. Lucas Freitas 29. Lucas Oliveira 85. Mateus Carvalho 9. Matheus Franca 18. Paulinho Paula 2. Rodriguez J. 23. Thiago Mendes 99. Vegetti P. 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Palermo M.	Fernando Diniz

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', Avila G. 🟨,
34', Coutinho 🟨,
40', Hugo Moura 🟥,
45+2', Britez E. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Rayan ⚽, Coutinho (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rodrigo ↓, Matheus Rossetto ↑,
49', Kuscevic B. 🟨,
60', Lucero J. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
61', Moreira N. ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
61', Gomez C. A. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
61', Coutinho ↓, David ↑,
70', Bareiro A. 🟨,
71', Avila G. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
72', Guzman Y. ↓, Moises ↑,
77', Lucas Piton ↓, Victor Luis ↑,
78', Deyverson 🟨,
79', Pochettino T. ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
82', 0 - 2, David ⚽,
88', Tche Tche ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
90+5', Robert Renan 🟨,
90+5', Bareiro A. 🟥,
90+6', Victor Luis 🟥,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.

Fortaleza has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vasco is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fortaleza might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco (Thigh Injury) Joao Ricardo (Shoulder Injury) Lucas Crispim (Muscle Injury) Lucca Prior (Pelvis Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pereira M. (Yellow Cards) Weverson (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Vasco: Adson (Broken Leg) Jair (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Allanzinho (Inactive) Benevenuto (Hamstring Injury) Tinga (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Vasco: Cuesta C. (Thigh Injury) Thiago Mendes (Calf Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 1.8:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
05.10.25	Juventude - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
02.10.25	Fortaleza - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Palmeiras - Fortaleza	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWLW
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
05.10.25	Vasco da Gama - Vitória Salvador	4:3 ✺
01.10.25	Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama	3:0 ✺
27.09.25	Vasco da Gama - Cruzeiro	2:0 ✺
24.09.25	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	3:1 ✺
21.09.25	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	3:0
09.11.24	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	3:0
03.07.24	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	2:0
Copa do Brasil
21.05.24	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	4:3 penalties
01.05.24	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.23	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	1:0
27.05.23	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	2:0

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