Match Info

BULGARIA: Parva liga - Round 10

Date: 28 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadion Lokomotiv (Plovdiv)

Referee: Georgiev Kuzev P. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Sportklub 10
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 10
Montenegro	Sportklub 10
North-macedonia	Sportklub 10


	Lokomotiv Plovdiv		Krumovgrad

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.2
	2.05	3.25	3.5	Watch
	2.13	3.29	3.62
	2.09	3.28	3.56	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.67)	3.25 ↓ (3.55)	3.47 ↓ (5.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
44.5%

Draw
28.7%

Krumovgrad
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

26.2%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

18.8%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lokomotiv Plovdiv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lokomotiv Plovdiv's form might have worsened.

Krumovgrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Krumovgrad's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lokomotiv Plovdiv than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Krumovgrad than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	44.4%	22.2%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Krumovgrad Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Krumovgrad will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Lukov M. (G) 16. Peshov K. 91. Segura J. 5. Pavlov T. 44. Lyaskov A. 33. Karakashev G. 99. Lamy J. 75. N'Zi J. 6. Ivanov H. 17. Penev N. 14. Iliev D. (C)	1. Georgiev Y. (G) 5. Simic M. 4. Lucas Santana 24. Marin L. 2. Ali D. 13. Diego Raposo 44. Katsarov B. (C) 10. Yusein S. 7. Tsvetanov M. 9. Rafael Furtado 70. Matheus Souza
Substitutes
12. Ali E. 19. Haydarov M. 22. Ivanov I. 3. Kostov K. 21. Medved V. 4. Paskalev M. 10. Petkov M. 7. Polonskyi D. 81. Tomov K. (G)	22. Dost E. 11. Georgiev A. 99. Guermouche Y. 21. Makendzhiev B. (G) 19. Milev N. 14. Popov S. 25. Rabotov S. 91. Velev V. 77. Yusein O.
Coaches
Penev L.	Ribarski A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', Karakashev G. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Yusein S. ⚽, Matheus Souza (A),
32', 0 - 2, Matheus Souza ⚽,
42', N'Zi J. ↓, Haydarov M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Katsarov B. ↓, Dost E. ↑,
51', Peshov K. 🟨,
55', Segura J. 🟨,
59', Lamy J. ↓, Medved V. ↑,
59', Penev N. ↓, Petkov M. ↑,
65', Matheus Souza ↓, Milev N. ↑,
66', Milev N. 🟨,
69', 🟨,
76', Karakashev G. ↓, Ali E. ↑,
77', Haydarov M. 🟨,
82', Iliev D. 🟨,
88', 🟨,
88', Petkov M. 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 9 in the zone Parva liga (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone Parva liga (Relegation Group: )).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

In this match Lokomotiv Plovdiv is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Bulgarian Parva Liga
19.09.24	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - CSKA 1948 Sofia	0:2 ✺
13.09.24	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Hebar Pazardzhik	3:3 ✺
01.09.24	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Lokomotiv Sofia	1:1 ✺
26.08.24	Septemvri Sofia - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2:3 ✺
19.08.24	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Cherno More Varna	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTTWL
- FC Krumovgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
23.09.24	Krumovgrad - Botev Vratsa	3:0 ✺
15.09.24	Krumovgrad - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:3 ✺
31.08.24	Krumovgrad - Septemvri Sofia	2:0 ✺
26.08.24	Cherno More Varna - Krumovgrad	3:0 ✺
16.08.24	Krumovgrad - Beroe Stara Zagora	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
10.05.24	Krumovgrad - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	4:1
02.03.24	Krumovgrad - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	3:1
03.09.23	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Krumovgrad	4:0

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