Match Info

Premier League

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Umuganda Stadium (Gisenyi)


	Etincelles		Kigali

	1	X	2
	2.52	2.88	2.72
	2.63	2.75	2.7
	2.53	3	2.84	Watch
	2.75	2.75	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (2.65)	2.85 ↑ (2.78)	2.72 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Etincelles
34.8%

Draw
31.9%

Kigali
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

32.4%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

32.3%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Etincelles has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Kigali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Etincelles than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kigali than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Etincelles - Kigali Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Etincelles won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Recently, Kigali has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Etincelles won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:21. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Etincelles won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 1.4:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Etincelles	3	2	1	0	2:0	2	7
16	Kigali FC	3	0	1	2	0:4	-4	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Etincelles FC
Rwanda Premier League
27.12.25	Rayon Sports - Etincelles	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Etincelles - Police	0:1 ✺
17.12.25	Etincelles - Al-Merreikh	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Musanze - Etincelles	1:3 ✺
05.12.25	Kiyovu Sports - Etincelles	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TLLWL
- AS Kigali
Rwanda Premier League
29.12.25	Al-Hilal Club of Omdurman - Kigali	4:2 ✺
26.12.25	Gasogi United - Kigali	1:1 ✺
19.12.25	Kigali - Bugesera	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Muhanga - Kigali	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Al-Merreikh - Kigali	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Rwanda Premier League
19.05.25	Kigali - Etincelles	2:2
07.01.25	Etincelles - Kigali	1:0
06.12.23	Etincelles - Kigali	4:2
24.02.23	Etincelles - Kigali	2:2
19.08.22	Kigali - Etincelles	2:0
17.04.22	Kigali - Etincelles	2:2
12.12.21	Etincelles - Kigali	1:1

Etincelles - Kigali: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide