The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Everton 48.6%
Draw 25.8%
Aston Villa 25.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
45.2%
25.6%
29.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
46.3%
26.2%
28.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Everton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Everton than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+3.1%)
Everton - Aston Villa Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Brosnan C. (C) 2. Blundell H. 5. Layzell N. 25. Silcock H. 33. Pacheco M. 11. Cain H. 30. Mace R. 22. Galli A. 18. Vignola O. 29. Momiki Y. 9. McNamara H.
23. Okuma A. (G) 4. Patten A. (C) 3. Harviken M. 24. Deslandes O. 14. Wilms L. 5. Kielland J. 6. Jean-Francois O. 16. Maritz N. 21. Kendall L. 17. Grant C. 20. Vangsgaard A.
Substitutes
20. Finnigan M. 24. Foster R. (G) 3. Ishikawa R. 13. Kitagawa H. 17. Mouchon N. 15. Rantala J. 8. van Gool R. 7. Wheeler C.
13. Hijikata M. 22. Imuran R. 7. Kearns M. 38. Maltby R. 27. McAulay M. 18. Mullet G. 19. Murphy L. 1. Ramsey E. (G) 25. Taylor M.
Coaches
Phelan S.
Sorensen B.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Maritz N. ⚽, Vangsgaard A. (A),
32', 0 - 2, Vangsgaard A. ⚽, Grant C. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', 0 - 3, Vangsgaard A. ⚽, Maritz N. (A),
59', Cain H. ↓, Rantala J. ↑,
59', Galli A. ↓, Wheeler C. ↑,
61', Kielland J. ↓, Hijikata M. ↑,
61', Jean-Francois O. ↓, Taylor M. ↑,
61', Kendall L. ↓, Kearns M. ↑,
70', Vignola O. ↓, Mouchon N. ↑,
71', Silcock H. ↓, Ishikawa R. ↑,
74', Deslandes O. ↓, Imuran R. ↑,
79', 1 - 3, McNamara H. ⚽,
86', Grant C. ↓, Murphy L. ↑,
90', 2 - 3, Mouchon N. ⚽, Momiki Y. (A),
Preview
A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7th and 10th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Everton won 2.
In recent outings, Everton has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Aston Villa is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Everton is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
Confirmed absences for Everton: Gabarro I.
(Knee Injury)
Holmgaard K.
(Knee Injury)
Issy
(Injury)
Kramzar Z.
(Knee Injury).
Confirmed absences for Aston Villa: Baijings J.
(Knee Injury)
Daly R.
(Inactive)
Kearns M.
(Ankle Injury)
Kendall L.
(Groin Injury)
Melgard K.
(Inactive)
Roebuck E.
(Shoulder Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Aston Villa: Parker L.
(Ankle Injury).
In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Everton has recorded 9 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:17 (averaging 1.9:1.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Everton against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 10:13 goals (averaging 1.3:1.6 per game).