Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 4

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Woudestein (Rotterdam)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Netherlands	ESPN 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Excelsior		Sparta Rotterdam

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.75	3	Watch
	2.20	3.70	3.10
	2.22	3.6	3.05
	2.3	3.8	3.03
	2.28	3.68	2.92	Watch
	2.25	3.7	2.95
	2.25	3.87	3.06	Watch
	2.2	3.65	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.06)	3.72 ↑ (3.65)	3.01 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excelsior
42.7%

Draw
25.7%

Sparta Rotterdam
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

25.4%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

24.7%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Sparta Rotterdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	11.1%	44.4%

Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Sparta Rotterdam will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Excelsior: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. van Gassel S. (G) 3. Meissen R. 4. Widell C. (C) 14. Plug J. 15. Janssen S. 20. Hartjes L. 8. Yegoian I. 6. van Vianen D. 7. Sliti A. 19. Garden D. 30. Thorsteinsson A.	1. Bednarek F. (G) 2. Martes L. 3. Young M. 4. Martins Indi B. (C) 5. Kuipers B. 6. Baas J. 8. Toornstra J. 7. van Cruijsen R. 10. Mito S. 11. van Bergen M. 9. Zonneveld M.
Substitutes
12. Bos K. 24. Cairo G. 2. da Silva Moreira E. 23. Finey Y. 28. Groen N. 5. Henderikx S. 40. Holla T. (G) 11. Jahanbakhsh A. 21. Silva Timas I. 18. Sulzbacher V. 22. Turay O.	22. Ideho J. 19. Kostic A. 20. Kuiper P. (G) 14. Quintero T. 12. Reith B. 16. Roaldsoy A. 30. Suur R. (G) 17. Terho C. 13. Verschuren N. 15. Vianello G.
Coaches
den Uil R.	Meijer R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Toornstra J. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Sliti A. ⚽,
28', Janssen S. 🟨,
37', Thorsteinsson A. 🟨,
39', van Cruijsen R. ↓, Terho C. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 1 - 1, Zonneveld M. ⚽, van Bergen M. (A),
59', Sliti A. ↓, Jahanbakhsh A. ↑,
59', van Vianen D. ↓, da Silva Moreira E. ↑,
67', Garden D. ↓, Groen N. ↑,
67', Thorsteinsson A. ↓, Silva Timas I. ↑,
83', Toornstra J. ↓, Roaldsoy A. ↑,
83', van Bergen M. ↓, Ideho J. ↑,
85', Janssen S. ↓, Bos K. ↑,
89', Baas J. ↓, Verschuren N. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Groen N. ⚽, Silva Timas I. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 2.

Excelsior is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sparta Rotterdam has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Excelsior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Excelsior has had a series of away games.

Recently, Sparta Rotterdam has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There are questionable in Excelsior: Bos K. (Shoulder Injury) Garden D. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:29. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.6:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15:9	6	11
12	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	13:20	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Excelsior - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 45.08%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
15.08.26	Excelsior - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
07.08.26	Cambuur - Excelsior	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	De Graafschap - Excelsior	1:5 ✺
24.07.26	Heracles Almelo - Excelsior	1:4 ✺
18.07.26	NAC Breda - Excelsior	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWWWW
- Sparta Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
22.08.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Utrecht	3:3 ✺
14.08.26	Telstar - Sparta Rotterdam	1:3 ✺
09.08.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Feyenoord	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Duisburg	0:0 ✺
28.07.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Asteras Tripolis	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
17.05.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Excelsior	2:3
14.09.25	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1
17.02.24	Sparta Rotterdam - Excelsior	4:2
01.10.23	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1
05.03.23	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	1:4
14.01.23	Sparta Rotterdam - Excelsior	1:0
Club Friendly
31.07.21	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	0:3

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