Match Info

Date: 4 May 2021, Tuesday


	FBC Melgar		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.3	1.85	Watch
	3.9	3.1	1.91
	4.3	3.05	1.85	Watch
	3.95	3.05	1.93
	4.33	3.16	2.01
	4.2	3.1	1.95	Watch
	3.86	3.28	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.18 ↓ (4.38)	3.15 ↓ (3.5)	1.92 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
22.2%

Draw
29.5%

Athletico Paranaense
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

25.4%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.5%

20.6%

66.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletico Paranaense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with FBC Melgar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+18.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletico Paranaense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

FBC Melgar - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Recent matches Melgar is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Athletico PR is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Melgar could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Athletico PR is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
01.05.21	Escuela Municipal Binacional - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.21	FBC Melgar - SD Aucas	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
24.04.21	FBC Melgar - Universidad San Martín	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.04.21	Metropolitanos - FBC Melgar	2:3 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
15.04.21	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWLWL
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
03.05.21	Azuriz - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
30.04.21	Paraná Clube Curitiba - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.21	Athletico Paranaense - Metropolitanos	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
25.04.21	Athletico Paranaense - Rio Branco PR	2:0 ✺
22.04.21	Athletico Paranaense - Cascavel	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWWW

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