Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 1

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Héroes de San Ramón (Cajamarca)

Referee: Haro D. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cajamarca		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.4	1.95	Watch
	4	3.25	1.78
	3.6	3.3	2.08	Watch
	3.87	3.29	1.99
	5.20	3.35	1.73	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.85
	3.9	3.35	2.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.07 ↓ (4.46)	3.32 ↓ (3.5)	1.92 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cajamarca
23%

Draw
28.2%

FBC Melgar
48.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21%

26.8%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.5%

26.1%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cajamarca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Cajamarca - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Cajamarca will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Melgar will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melgar: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Campos D. (G) 17. Garro L. 24. Romero F. 27. Serra P. 3. Rugel L. 25. Rosell Delgado J. A. 13. Oncoy F. 8. Mejia C. 5. Aguirre J. 10. Ramirez E. 11. Quintero J. (C)	12. Caceda C. (G) 33. Lazo M. 2. Barrios P. 15. Orzan H. 6. Gonzalez L. 27. Cabanillas N. 24. Tandazo W. 10. Martinez T. 7. Bordacahar C. 14. Vidales J. 9. Cuesta B. (C)
Substitutes
14. Alvarez L. 22. Balanta G. 23. Cabanillas M. 28. De la Cruz L. 6. Lujan J. 19. Palacios B. 1. Sanchez F. (G) 20. Vasquez A. 16. Villamarin R.	28. Arias A. 25. Barreda M. 20. Bernaola G. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 5. Deneumostier A. 13. Llontop M. 36. Nunez P. 4. Ramos E. 19. Rodriguez G.
Coaches
Bossi P.	Ribonetto W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Garro L. ↓, Vasquez A. ↑,
21', 0 - 1, Vidales J. ⚽,
34', Romero F. ↓, Lujan J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Barrios P. 🟨,
62', Aguirre J. 🟨,
66', Serra P. 🟥,
72', Barrios P. ↓, Deneumostier A. ↑,
74', Oncoy F. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,
79', 0 - 2, Lazo M. ⚽,
80', Vidales J. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
80', Bordacahar C. ↓, Arias A. ↑,
85', 1 - 2, Quintero J. ⚽,
87', Martinez T. 🟨,
89', Palacios B. 🟨,
90+2', Gonzalez L. 🟨,
90+3', Martinez T. ↓, Barreda M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cajamarca won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Melgar is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Cajamarca: Aparicio K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cajamarca: Alvarez L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cajamarca won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:30. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Cajamarca won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.5:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UTC De Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
12.07.25	Cajamarca - Alianza Lima	0:0 ✺
04.07.25	Sport Huancayo - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Cajamarca - Sport Boys	1:1 ✺
20.06.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Cajamarca	1:2 ✺
13.06.25	Cajamarca - Atlético Grau	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 TLTWL
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
12.07.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
02.07.25	Juan Pablo II College - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
21.06.25	Sport Huancayo - FBC Melgar	2:2 ✺
14.06.25	FBC Melgar - Sport Boys	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
08.02.25	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	3:0
22.10.24	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	1:0
12.05.24	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	2:6
15.08.23	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	1:1
18.03.23	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	0:0
29.07.22	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	1:0
04.03.22	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	3:1

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