The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cajamarca 18.5%
Draw 22.1%
FBC Melgar 59.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
29.8%
28.5%
41.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
29.2%
27.9%
42.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cajamarca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cajamarca's form might have worsened.
FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting FBC Melgar's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (+10.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cajamarca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-16.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for FBC Melgar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Cajamarca - FBC Melgar Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Campos A. (G) 17. Garro L. (C) 3. Ganoza M. 2. Duarte B. 6. Cavagna F. 8. Dioses D. 88. Arce L. 22. Camacho D. 10. Lliuya M. 19. Munoz A. 9. de Jesus M.
21. Cabezudo J. (G) 33. Lazo M. 23. Escobar J. 3. Gonzalez L. 27. Cabanillas N. 66. Orzan H. 24. Tandazo W. 7. Bordacahar C. 10. Quagliata N. 11. Vidales J. 9. Cuesta B. (C)
Substitutes
11. Arroyo A. 29. Barrios I. (G) 21. Bettocchi R. (G) 15. Cantt J. 13. Caro D. 18. Galvez S. 7. Nunez J. 35. Paredes G.
12. Caceda C. (G) 16. Caceres J. 80. D'Arrigo J. 5. Deneumostier A. 8. Guzman L. 90. Jesus Alcantar 26. Portillo M. 77. Zanelatto F. 45. Zegarra M.
Coaches
Molins C.
Rondelli M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Cuesta B. ⚽, Tandazo W. (A),
34', Dioses D. 🟨,
34', Ganoza M. 🟨,
45+3', Cuesta B. ↓, Caceres J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tandazo W. ↓, Portillo M. ↑,
46', de Jesus M. ↓, Arroyo A. ↑,
46', Cavagna F. ↓, Caro D. ↑,
61', Dioses D. ↓, Cantt J. ↑,
64', Escobar J. 🟨,
68', 0 - 2, Quagliata N. ⚽, Cabanillas N. (A),
70', Arce L. ↓, Nunez J. ↑,
71', Camacho D. ↓, Paredes G. ↑,
74', Cantt J. 🟨,
75', Quagliata N. ↓, Jesus Alcantar ↑,
81', Vidales J. ↓, Zanelatto F. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Garro L. ⚽, Munoz A. (A),
90', Jesus Alcantar 🟨,
90+3', Bordacahar C. 🟨,
Preview
A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 18th and 5th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cajamarca won 0.
Cajamarca is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Melgar is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Melgar carries the favorite tag into this contest.
Confirmed absences for Cajamarca: Figuera A.
(Red Card).
Our forecast points to a victory for Melgar in today's match, at odds of 1.51.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Cajamarca has recorded 4 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:30 (averaging 1.1:1.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Cajamarca against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 15:15 goals (averaging 1.5:1.5 per game).
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Campos A. (G) 
Duarte B. 
Arce L. 
Camacho D. 
Escobar J. 
Quagliata N. 
Arroyo A. 
Jesus Alcantar 
