Match Info

Copa de la Liga - Round 3

Date: 29 June 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin (UNSA) (Arequipa)


	FBC Melgar		Moquegua

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.10	5.50
	1.48	4.30	5.00
	1.47	4.76	4.99
	1.99	3.98	3.18	Watch
	1.40	4.70	4.90
	1.37	4.50	6.71
	1.42	4.20	5.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (2.58)	4.36 ↑ (3.29)	5.13 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
60.9%

Draw
21.1%

Moquegua
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

27.3%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

26.2%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+26.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FBC Melgar's performance.

Moquegua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Moquegua might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-24.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with FBC Melgar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moquegua than the current prediction. (+18.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Moquegua could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

FBC Melgar - Moquegua Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Moquegua will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melgar: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', 🟥,
90+7', 🟥,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Moquegua may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Melgar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Including home match between the teams, Melgar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
12.06.26	Bentín Tacna Heroica - FBC Melgar	3:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
31.05.26	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	3:1 ✺
22.05.26	Juan Pablo II College - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	FBC Melgar - Sport Huancayo	4:1 ✺
10.05.26	Comerciantes Unidos - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWTWT
- Deportivo Moquegua
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
21.06.26	Moquegua - Bentín Tacna Heroica	3:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
29.05.26	Atlético Grau - Moquegua	1:0 ✺
23.05.26	Moquegua - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
17.05.26	Los Chankas - Moquegua	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Moquegua - ADT Tarma	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
15.02.26	FBC Melgar - Moquegua	4:0

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