Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 18 April 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa)

Referee: Ureta D. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	FBC Melgar		Deportivo Garcilaso

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.9	7	Watch
	1.42	4.2	5.75
	1.52	4.05	6.3	Watch
	1.55	3.85	7.5
	1.54	3.66	7.13	Watch
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.58	3.87	6.75	Watch
	1.52	4.05	6.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.62)	3.95 ↑ (3.65)	6.65 ↑ (5.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
62.2%

Draw
23.8%

Deportivo Garcilaso
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

25.8%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.4%

28.2%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Deportivo Garcilaso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

FBC Melgar - Deportivo Garcilaso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Caceda C. (G) 33. Lazo M. 2. Barrios P. 6. Gonzalez L. 13. Llontop M. 28. Arias A. 8. Guzman L. 7. Bordacahar C. (C) 10. Martinez T. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 11. Castro F.	1. Zubczuk P. (G) 55. Canales E. 13. Lojas J. (C) 16. Beltran C. 2. Salazar A. 5. Garcia C. 25. Paucar E. 10. Sandoval K. 8. Gomez N. 11. Erustes P. 9. Ugarriza A.
Substitutes
20. Bernaola G. 27. Cabanillas N. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 5. Deneumostier A. 17. Liza P. 4. Ramos E. 19. Rodriguez G. 24. Tandazo W. 22. Vivanco P.	31. Barbieri J. (G) 7. Bazan J. 26. Celi Y. 6. Garrafa Tapia I. A. 23. Moreno X. 19. Naya E. 22. Rodriguez A. 28. Valer J. F. 33. Villacorta S.
Coaches
Ribonetto W.	Duro G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Salazar A. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Lazo M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Paucar E. ↓, Naya E. ↑,
54', Bordacahar C. ↓, Tandazo W. ↑,
63', Guzman L. 🟨,
66', 1 - 1, Erustes P. (Pen),
70', Erustes P. ↓, Celi Y. ↑,
71', Canales E. 🟨,
72', Castro F. ↓, Liza P. ↑,
72', Martinez T. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Lojas J. ⚽, Sandoval K. (A),
76', Salazar A. 🟨,
79', Sandoval K. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
79', Ugarriza A. ↓, Moreno X. ↑,
81', Arias A. ↓, Vivanco P. ↑,
84', Barrios P. 🟨,
90', Gonzalez L. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 1 (Play Offs: ) and 3).

Recent matches Melgar is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Deportivo Garcilaso is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Melgar could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Melgar is certain favorite.

There will not play in Melgar: Cuesta B. (Knee Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Melgar won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:8 (average 2:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Melgar won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:5 (average 1.5:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
13.04.25	Universitario de Deportes - FBC Melgar	4:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.25	Lanús - FBC Melgar	3:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
05.04.25	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.25	FBC Melgar - Vasco da Gama	3:3 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
27.03.25	Ayacucho - FBC Melgar	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWTW
- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
14.04.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
04.04.25	Sport Huancayo - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:3 ✺
29.03.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Sport Boys	4:0 ✺
07.03.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0 ✺
28.02.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Atlético Grau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
03.11.24	FBC Melgar - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:1
25.05.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - FBC Melgar	1:3
01.07.23	Deportivo Garcilaso - FBC Melgar	2:2
15.05.23	FBC Melgar - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:4

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