The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
FBC Melgar 67.6%
Draw 19.5%
Deportivo Garcilaso 12.9%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
58.4%
24.4%
17.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
60.5%
23.2%
16.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FBC Melgar's performance.
Deportivo Garcilaso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with FBC Melgar that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (+3.4%)
FBC Melgar - Deportivo Garcilaso Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
21. Cabezudo J. (G) 33. Lazo M. 23. Escobar J. 3. Gonzalez L. 27. Cabanillas N. 25. Minda K. 24. Tandazo W. 7. Bordacahar C. 10. Quagliata N. 11. Vidales J. 9. Cuesta B. (C)
1. Zubczuk P. (C) 55. Canales E. 2. Salazar A. 19. Gomez A. 23. Moreno X. 8. Gonzalez A. 11. Arancibia F. 10. Sandoval K. 18. Ramos Rodriguez C. I. 30. Da Silva B. 9. Castelli F.
Substitutes
12. Caceda C. (G) 80. D'Arrigo J. 5. Deneumostier A. 8. Guzman L. 90. Jesus Alcantar 66. Orzan H. 26. Portillo M. 77. Zanelatto F. 45. Zegarra M.
27. Ascues A. 31. Barbieri J. (G) 35. Mendoza J. 24. Olivares C. 88. Pacheco F. 17. Ramirez S. 7. Rios L. 20. Rosell Delgado J. A. 14. Torrejon C.
Coaches
Rondelli M.
Greppo L.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
5', Castelli F. 🟨,
9', 0 - 1, Castelli F. ⚽, Sandoval K. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Quagliata N. ⚽, Lazo M. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
57', 1 - 2, Arancibia F. ⚽, Sandoval K. (A),
60', Ramos Rodriguez C. I. 🟨,
62', 2 - 2, Vidales J. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Quagliata N. 🟨,
68', Cabanillas N. ↓, Orzan H. ↑,
71', Castelli F. ↓, Pacheco F. ↑,
73', 3 - 2, Cuesta B. ⚽,
74', Vidales J. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
76', 4 - 2, Bordacahar C. ⚽, Orzan H. (A),
81', Bordacahar C. ↓, Zanelatto F. ↑,
82', Minda K. ↓, Jesus Alcantar ↑,
83', Ramos Rodriguez C. I. ↓, Torrejon C. ↑,
83', Sandoval K. ↓, Ascues A. ↑,
83', Da Silva B. ↓, Olivares C. ↑,
88', Moreno X. ↓, Rosell Delgado J. A. ↑,
90+5', Tandazo W. 🟨,
Preview
A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 7th and 3rd).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 1.
Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.
Melgar may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Bookmakers give the edge to Melgar for this game.
In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Melgar has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:12 (averaging 1.4:1.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Melgar against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 4:7 goals (averaging 1.3:2.3 per game).
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Cabezudo J. (G) 
Escobar J. 
Gonzalez L. 
Minda K. 
Quagliata N. 
Arancibia F. 
Ramos Rodriguez C. I. 
Jesus Alcantar 
