Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio 25 de Noviembre (Moquegua)

Referee: Cori V. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	Moquegua		ADT Tarma

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	3	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.75
	2.38	3	3.15	Watch
	2.38	3.3	3.15
	2.36	3.08	3.17	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.1
	2.36	3.04	3.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.75)	3.09 ↑ (2.92)	3.06 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moquegua
39.7%

Draw
30%

ADT Tarma
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

32%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

33.3%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moquegua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moquegua's performance.

ADT Tarma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moquegua than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moquegua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that ADT Tarma could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Moquegua - ADT Tarma Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grados C. (G) 4. Perleche A. 30. Granda J. 3. Enciso C. 15. Amasifuen N. 25. Chipao R. 8. Mejia C. 7. Lastre E. 10. Chavez N. (C) 16. Davila A. 90. Collazos J.	30. Valencia J. (G) 14. Cabello C. 23. Narvaez J. 28. Soto J. 20. Gutierrez A. 15. Alvino J. 16. Perez L. 8. Guivin Tanta J. 10. Cedron V. (C) 37. Rengifo N. 9. Rengifo H.
Substitutes
11. Bryan Angulo 29. Figueroa R. (G) 6. Jimenez J. 13. Lojas J. 22. Montenegro E. 14. Ramirez C. 20. Ramirez D. 88. Torres R. 17. Zapata Y.	17. Arakaki H. 32. Bauman J. 21. Benites Vargas L. E. 4. Biojo R. 13. Gomez L. 31. Navarro J. 6. Ojeda A. 7. Rojas J. 33. Solis C. (G)
Coaches
Serna J.	Ripacolli D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Rengifo H. ↓, Bauman J. ↑,
21', 1 - 0, Collazos J. ⚽, Lastre E. (A),
24', Granda J. ↓, Ramirez C. ↑,
34', Narvaez J. 🟨,
42', Lastre E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Rengifo N. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
46', Gutierrez A. ↓, Gomez L. ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Rojas J. ⚽,
56', Chavez N. ↓, Bryan Angulo ↑,
56', Davila A. ↓, Zapata Y. ↑,
58', Chipao R. 🟨,
71', Perez L. ↓, Ojeda A. ↑,
87', Collazos J. ↓, Montenegro E. ↑,
87', Guivin Tanta J. 🟨,
90', Zapata Y. 🟨,
90', Cedron V. 🟨,
90+5', Rojas J. ↓, Benites Vargas L. E. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 2, Gomez L. ⚽,
90+6', Gomez L. 🟨,
90+7', Soto J. 🟨,
90+11', 2 - 2, Bryan Angulo (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 9).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in ADT: Arakaki H. (Injury)

There are questionable in Moquegua: Bryan Angulo (Ankle Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Moquegua	11	1	4	6	7:19	-12	7
17	AD Tarma	11	1	3	7	7:21	-14	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Moquegua
Peruvian Liga 1
02.05.26	Alianza Lima - Moquegua	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Moquegua - Cajamarca	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Cienciano - Moquegua	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Moquegua - Juan Pablo II College	3:0 ✺
03.04.26	Sporting Cristal - Moquegua	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 LWLWW
- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
02.05.26	ADT Tarma - Atlético Grau	1:0 ✺
27.04.26	ADT Tarma - Los Chankas	4:0 ✺
18.04.26	Cajamarca - ADT Tarma	2:2 ✺
14.04.26	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
03.04.26	Cienciano - ADT Tarma	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWTLL

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