Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra (Cutervo)

Referee: Guadalupe W. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	Comerciantes Unidos		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	2.8	3	2.55	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.25
	2.8	3.2	2.48	Watch
	2.8	3.15	2.48
	2.82	3.22	2.51	Watch
	2.75	3	2.5
	2.79	3.16	2.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↓ (2.9)	3.13 ↓ (3.73)	2.46 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comerciantes Unidos
33.2%

Draw
29.4%

FBC Melgar
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

25.1%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

24.3%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comerciantes Unidos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and FBC Melgar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FBC Melgar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	60%	40%

Comerciantes Unidos - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Cordova M. (G) 40. Alcedo F. 30. Guzman P. 6. Rodriguez J. 16. F. Rojas 18. Rodriguez A. 4. Arias A. (C) 15. Cossio A. 11. Herrera J. 13. Perez Azambuya E. M. 25. Vilca R.	21. Cabezudo J. (G) 33. Lazo M. 23. Escobar J. 5. Deneumostier A. 27. Cabanillas N. 24. Tandazo W. 6. Salas J. 16. Caceres J. 10. Quagliata N. 45. Zegarra M. 11. Vidales J. (C)
Substitutes
7. Carranza M. 99. Charun J. (G) 5. Correa Flores C. A. 19. Lino D. 50. Olivares J. 20. Parodi J. 29. Saavedra C. 14. Salinas T. 9. Sen M.	20. Bernaola G. 12. Caceda C. (G) 9. Cuesta B. 80. D'Arrigo J. 22. Erustes P. 14. Gamero Y. 8. Guzman L. 36. Nunez P. 4. Ramos A.
Coaches
Biaggio C.	Balta V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Salas J. ⚽, Quagliata N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Alcedo F. ↓, Salinas T. ↑,
56', Rodriguez A. ↓, Sen M. ↑,
61', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
64', Deneumostier A. 🟨,
72', Zegarra M. ↓, Bernaola G. ↑,
73', Herrera J. ↓, Carranza M. ↑,
73', Vilca R. ↓, Saavedra C. ↑,
81', Vidales J. ↓, Cuesta B. ↑,
81', Cabanillas N. ↓, Ramos A. ↑,
82', Ramos A. 🟨,
90', Caceres J. ↓, D'Arrigo J. ↑,
90', F. Rojas ↓, Olivares J. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Guzman P. ⚽, Salinas T. (A),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 7 and 5)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes Unidos won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Melgar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Melgar: Bordacahar C. (Knee Injury) Orzan H. (Injury) Zanelatto F. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes Unidos won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Comerciantes Unidos won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	FBC Melgar	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19
14	Comerciantes Unidos	11	2	4	5	18:19	-1	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
02.05.26	Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Juan Pablo II College - Comerciantes Unidos	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Sport Huancayo - Comerciantes Unidos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LWWTT
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.26	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
27.04.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - FBC Melgar	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	FBC Melgar - Universitario de Deportes	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Sport Boys - FBC Melgar	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	FBC Melgar - Cusco	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
27.09.25	Comerciantes Unidos - FBC Melgar	1:1
01.05.25	FBC Melgar - Comerciantes Unidos	1:1
07.09.24	FBC Melgar - Comerciantes Unidos	3:0
02.03.24	Comerciantes Unidos - FBC Melgar	0:0
01.11.18	FBC Melgar - Comerciantes Unidos	2:1
05.08.18	Comerciantes Unidos - FBC Melgar	2:2
20.11.17	Comerciantes Unidos - FBC Melgar	1:1

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