Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe (Fafe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Fafe		Braga B

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.6	5
	1.55	3.65	5.15
	1.65	3.74	5.48
	1.62	3.77	5.4	Watch
	1.6	3.4	5
	1.59	3.58	5.18
	1.58	3.6	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.74)	3.62 ↑ (3.33)	5.17 ↑ (4.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fafe
57.2%

Draw
25.2%

Braga B
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

27.4%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

26.8%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fafe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Braga B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga B than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Fafe - Braga B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Joao Goncalo (G) 26. Batista J. 8. Braga V. 35. Cardoso F. (C) 77. Carlos Daniel 85. Castro D. 10. Ka 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 9. Santos J. 4. Teixeira L. 13. Vigario J.	78. Carvalho J. (G) 82. Costa G. 89. Duarte A. 61. Ferreira T. 90. Luisinho 62. Matos N. (C) 11. Merheg S. J. 53. Noro J. 81. Pascoal F. 80. Vasconcelos 95. Vidigal S.
Substitutes
20. Amorim J. 15. Breno 95. Fonseca T. 22. Manu (G) 11. Picas 78. Pinto G. 79. Teixeira T. 7. Veiga T. 5. Ze Oliveira	72. Aragao J. 58. Costa F. 66. Dias G. (G) 92. Gil A. 60. Lomba J. 76. Marques T. 70. Mordomo R. 59. Said Y. 96. Sousa A.
Coaches
Ferreira M.	Pinto A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Vidigal S. ⚽,
41', Pascoal F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Vidigal S. ↓, Costa F. ↑,
46', Ka ↓, Picas ↑,
56', Costa G. 🟨,
58', Luisinho ↓, Lomba J. ↑,
66', Vasconcelos ↓, Gil A. ↑,
66', Merheg S. J. ↓, Said Y. ↑,
66', Braga V. ↓, Veiga T. ↑,
76', Duarte A. ↓, Aragao J. ↑,
76', Batista J. ↓, Ze Oliveira ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Picas ⚽,
84', Pascoal F. 🟨,
87', Vigario J. ↓, Breno ↑,
87', Carlos Daniel ↓, Fonseca T. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Santos J. ⚽,
90+1', Santos J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Braga B may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fafe is considered a favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Fafe won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:9. (average 1.7:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fafe
Taça de Portugal
04.02.26	Fafe - Torreense	1:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
25.01.26	Fafe - Braga B	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Fafe	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
14.01.26	Fafe - Braga	2:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
10.01.26	São João de Ver - Fafe	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.3 TTLWW
- Braga B
Portuguese Liga 3
25.01.26	Fafe - Braga B	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	Braga B - São João de Ver	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Amarante - Braga B	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Braga B - Marco 09	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Sanjoanense - Braga B	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
25.01.26	Fafe - Braga B	2:2
01.11.25	Braga B - Fafe	1:0
05.01.25	Fafe - Braga B	1:0
14.09.24	Braga B - Fafe	2:0
19.01.24	Braga B - Fafe	0:0
08.10.23	Fafe - Braga B	0:0
04.02.23	Fafe - Braga B	1:4

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