Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 6

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe (Fafe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Fafe		Paredes

	1	X	2
	2	3	3.5
	2.11	3.12	3.88
	2.07	3.13	3.73	Watch
	2	2.9	3.75
	2.01	3	3.7
	2.1	3.15	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.21)	3.05 ↑ (2.93)	3.68 ↑ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fafe
44.9%

Draw
30.1%

Paredes
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

31.3%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

30.2%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fafe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Paredes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paredes than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Fafe - Paredes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
64. Martins T. (G) 85. Castro D. 26. Batista J. 4. Teixeira L. 13. Vigario J. 35. Cardoso F. (C) 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 11. Picas 9. Santos J. 77. Carlos Daniel 95. Fonseca T.	31. Matos F. (G) 6. Matheus Brito 2. Araujo P. 23. Macedo Z. 3. Duarte D. P. 44. Ferreira P. (C) 21. Veiga D. 8. Carvalho D. 84. Yuk J. 99. Balelo 14. Erik
Substitutes
20. Amorim J. 8. Braga V. 15. Breno 21. Davis SIlva 71. Joao Goncalo (G) 10. Ka 78. Pinto G. 79. Teixeira T. 7. Veiga T.	9. Fonseca R. 16. Goncalves T. (G) 20. Lemos I. M. 7. Miguel 5. Moreira Nuno 4. Pereira Pacheco R. F. 26. Santos Outeiro D. 10. Soares A. 29. Vasco Rocha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Erik 🟨,
30', Ribeiro Oliveira J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Carvalho D. 🟨,
62', Carvalho D. ↓, Miguel ↑,
62', Balelo ↓, Fonseca R. ↑,
64', Fonseca T. 🟨,
69', Ribeiro Oliveira J. ↓, Braga V. ↑,
69', Fonseca T. ↓, Veiga T. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Santos J. ⚽,
78', Matheus Brito 🟨,
84', Macedo Z. ↓, Santos Outeiro D. ↑,
84', Yuk J. ↓, Soares A. ↑,
85', Carlos Daniel 🟨,
86', Santos J. ↓, Ka ↑,
89', Teixeira L. 🟨,
90+3', 🟥,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Fafe is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 0.8:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Fafe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Paredes - the odds 3.37 are the expected chance of winning is 27.18%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.26	Fafe - Marco 09	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Paredes - Fafe	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Fafe - Sanjoanense	3:2 ✺
21.02.26	São João de Ver - Fafe	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Fafe - Braga B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TTWLW
- USC Paredes
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.26	São João de Ver - Paredes	3:1 ✺
08.03.26	Paredes - Fafe	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Braga B - Paredes	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Paredes - Sanjoanense	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
08.03.26	Paredes - Fafe	0:0
29.11.25	Fafe - Paredes	2:1
17.08.25	Paredes - Fafe	1:1
28.01.23	Paredes - Fafe	0:1
09.10.22	Fafe - Paredes	0:0

Fafe - Paredes: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide