Match Info

J1 League - Round 11

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Fagiano Okayama		Kashima Antlers

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.1	2.5
	2.7	3.1	2.6
	2.82	3.11	2.46	Watch
	2.71	3.31	2.76
	2.86	3.23	2.56	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.62
	2.88	3.22	2.57	Watch
	2.65	3.15	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↓ (3)	3.17 ↓ (3.23)	2.6 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
34%

Draw
29.7%

Kashima Antlers
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

29.1%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

27.7%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Kashima Antlers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashima Antlers than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	18.2%	45.5%

Fagiano Okayama - Kashima Antlers Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Kashima will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kashima: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kashima (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Brodersen S. (G) 4. Abe K. 2. Tatsuta Y. 15. Kudo K. 39. Sato R. 24. Fujita I. 14. Tabei R. 28. Matsumoto M. 27. Kimura T. 8. Esaka A. 99. Lucao	1. Hayakawa T. (G) 23. Tsukui K. 55. Ueda N. 5. Sekigawa I. 2. Anzai K. 13. Chinen K. 10. Shibasaki G. 19. Morooka S. 71. Araki R. 77. Cavric A. 40. Suzuki Y.
Substitutes
3. Fujii K. 9. Gleyson 22. Ichimi K. 16. Iesaka Y. 33. Kamiya Yuta 21. Kawakami K. (G) 11. Ota R. 7. Takeuchi R. 5. Yanagi Y.	20. Funabashi Y. 29. Kajikawa Y. (G) 3. Kim Tae-Hyeon 32. Matsumoto H. 27. Matsumura Y. 6. Misao K. 28. Mizoguchi S. 36. Sato M. 17. Talles Brener
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Oniki T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Kudo K. 🟨,
21', Suzuki Y. (Pen),
43', 1 - 0, Sato R. ⚽,
45+6', Tsukui K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 1 - 1, Cavric A. ⚽, Tsukui K. (A),
60', Tatsuta Y. ↓, Yanagi Y. ↑,
60', Tabei R. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
67', Kimura T. ↓, Ichimi K. ↑,
67', Chinen K. ↓, Misao K. ↑,
67', Araki R. ↓, Matsumura Y. ↑,
67', Shibasaki G. ↓, Funabashi Y. ↑,
72', Morooka S. ↓, Talles Brener ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Talles Brener ⚽, Cavric A. (A),
75', Fujita I. 🟨,
75', Fujita I. ↓, Fujii K. ↑,
75', Lucao ↓, Gleyson ↑,
88', Cavric A. ↓, Kim Tae-Hyeon ↑,
90+7', Kamiya Yuta 🟨,
90+8', Gleyson 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 4 and 8).

Recent matches Okayama is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Kashima is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Kashima could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Kashima: Shimoda Y. (Foot Injury) Tokuda H. (Broken ankle)

There are questionable in Okayama: Tabei R. (Injury) Tagami D. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Okayama won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
12.04.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Fagiano Okayama	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo	1:0 ✺
02.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Fagiano Okayama - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Fagiano Okayama	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WWLWL
- Kashima Antlers
Japan J1 League
12.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Kashima Antlers	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.04.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Kashima Antlers	2:1 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
06.04.25	Kashima Antlers - Kyoto Sanga	3:4 ✺
02.04.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kashima Antlers	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Kashima Antlers - Vissel Kobe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
22.09.16	Kashima Antlers - Fagiano Okayama	2:1

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