Match Info

J1 League - Round 6

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Fagiano Okayama		Sanfrecce Hiroshima

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.40	1.76	Watch
	4.00	3.50	1.87
	3.80	3.50	1.86	Watch
	4.23	3.67	1.93
	3.98	3.69	1.88	Watch
	4.25	3.65	1.85
	4.68	3.49	1.81	Watch
	4.15	3.50	1.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.18 ↑ (3.8)	3.55 ↑ (3.5)	1.85 ↓ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
22.5%

Draw
26.5%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
51%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

26.3%

49.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

25.8%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hiroshima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moser L. (G) 48. Tatsuta Y. 6. Omori H. 43. Suzuki Y. 26. Motoyama H. 24. Fujita I. 80. Oberdan 51. Shirai K. 20. Kawano K. 8. Esaka A. (C) 99. Lucao	99. Ouchi I. (G) 15. Nakano S. 4. Araki H. 19. Sasaki S. (C) 5. Arai N. 6. Kawabe H. 35. Nakajima Y. 7. Higashi S. 11. Kato M. 10. Suzuki A. 22. Haller S.
Substitutes
79. Browne N. 33. Kamiya Yuta 77. Kawanami G. (G) 9. Leo Gaucho 41. Miyamoto E. 44. Mori S. 10. Na Sang-Ho 18. Tagami D. 88. Yamane T.	23. Ayukawa S. 8. Kawamura T. 37. Kim Ju-Sung 32. Koshimichi S. 14. Matsumoto T. 46. Noguchi R. 1. Osako K. (G) 48. Ota H. 18. Suga D.
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Gaul B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Kawano K. ⚽, Lucao (A),
16', Oberdan 🟨,
21', 2 - 0, Kawano K. ⚽, Oberdan (A),
45+2', 2 - 1, Haller S. ⚽, Kato M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Arai N. ↓, Ayukawa S. ↑,
50', 3 - 1, Kawano K. ⚽, Motoyama H. (A),
58', Kato M. ↓, Kawamura T. ↑,
58', Kawano K. ↓, Leo Gaucho ↑,
61', Oberdan 🟨,
64', 3 - 2, Kawabe H. ⚽, Suzuki A. (A),
65', Lucao ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
66', Fujita I. ↓, Miyamoto E. ↑,
66', Esaka A. ↓, Na Sang-Ho ↑,
79', Nakajima Y. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
79', Araki H. ↓, Koshimichi S. ↑,
86', Higashi S. ↓, Suga D. ↑,
88', Shirai K. ↓, Tagami D. ↑,
90+3', Miyamoto E. 🟨,
90+9', Leo Gaucho ↓, Mori S. ↑,

Preview

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, Hiroshima is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Okayama: Kimura T. (Foot Injury) Ogura K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Hiroshima: Asano T. (Calf Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 12.87% Okayama: 2.13%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	9	6	2	1	22:6	16	20
9	Okayama	9	4	1	4	12:12	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Fagiano Okayama - the odds 3.8 are the expected chance of winning is 24.22%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.48%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
02.09.26	JEF United Chiba - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Fagiano Okayama - Beluga Rosso Iwami	3:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
22.08.26	Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo Verdy	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWTW
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Japan J1 League
02.09.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Okinawa SV	4:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
22.08.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kawasaki Frontale	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
01.05.26	Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0
14.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties
05.07.25	Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1
12.04.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Fagiano Okayama	0:1

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