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Current Win Probability
JEF United Chiba 24.5%
Draw 27.6%
Fagiano Okayama 47.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
31.7%
28.3%
40%
Our Initial ML Estimation
30.6%
27.3%
41.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
JEF United Chiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that JEF United Chiba's form might have worsened.
Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fagiano Okayama's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for JEF United Chiba than the current prediction. (+6.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for JEF United Chiba, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-6.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fagiano Okayama, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
11.1%
0%
88.9%
JEF United Chiba - Fagiano Okayama Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. JEF United will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Okayama will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Confidence interval (95%) for Okayama: 68.4% – 100%.
19. Suarez J. (G) 22. Iida T. 66. Hall D. 28. Kawano T. (C) 7. Tanaka K. 55. Kida H. 25. Matheus Indio 8. Tsukui T. 29. Yamura K. 20. Ishikawa D. 99. Erison
1. Moser L. (G) 44. Mori S. 48. Tatsuta Y. (C) 6. Omori H. 26. Motoyama H. 41. Miyamoto E. 80. Oberdan 88. Yamane T. 20. Kawano K. 10. Na Sang-Ho 9. Leo Gaucho
Substitutes
39. Ishio R. 5. Kobayashi Y. 30. Matsumura T. 18. Sugiyama N. 23. Suzuki R. (G) 4. Taguchi T. 14. Tsubaki N. 41. Yasui T. 11. Yonekura K.
79. Browne N. 8. Esaka A. 24. Fujita I. 33. Kamiya Yuta 77. Kawanami G. (G) 99. Lucao 51. Shirai K. 5. Shu I. 18. Tagami D.
Coaches
Kobayashi Y.
Kiyama T.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Leo Gaucho ⚽, Motoyama H. (A),
36', Kida H. ↓, Taguchi T. ↑,
41', 1 - 1, Tanaka K. ⚽, Taguchi T. (A),
45', Tsukui T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Esaka A. ↑,
64', Leo Gaucho ↓, Lucao ↑,
64', Kawano K. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
70', Tsukui T. ↓, Tsubaki N. ↑,
70', Yamura K. ↓, Yonekura K. ↑,
70', Erison ↓, Matsumura T. ↑,
77', Yonekura K. 🟨,
81', Motoyama H. ↓, Shirai K. ↑,
84', Tanaka K. ↓, Yasui T. ↑,
87', Yamane T. ↓, Browne N. ↑,
90+3', Miyamoto E. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 2, Kamiya Yuta ⚽, Lucao (A),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, JEF United won 2.
Recent form of JEF United has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Okayama's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
In this match, Okayama is the team to beat.
There will not play in JEF United: Ueda Y.
(Knee Injury)
There will not play in Okayama: Kimura T.
(Foot Injury)
Ogura K.
(Knee Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, JEF United won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:19. (average 1.6:1).
Including home matches between the teams, JEF United won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).
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Suarez J. (G) 
Iida T. 
Hall D. 
Matheus Indio 
Moser L. (G) 
Na Sang-Ho 
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