Match Info

SCOTLAND: Championship - Round 26

Date: 8 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Falkirk Stadium (Falkirk)

Referee: Hardie R. (Sco)


	Falkirk		Partick Thistle

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.8	5.25	Watch
	1.55	3.9	4.6
	1.59	3.75	4.9
	1.58	4.15	5.44
	1.59	4.02	5.31	Watch
	1.62	3.8	5
	1.57	4	5.12	Watch
	1.59	3.75	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.67)	3.9 ↑ (3.72)	5.07 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Falkirk
58.2%

Draw
23.6%

Partick Thistle
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

24.7%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

21.4%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Falkirk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Partick Thistle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Falkirk than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Falkirk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Partick Thistle than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Partick Thistle could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Falkirk - Partick Thistle Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hogarth N. (G) 6. Donaldson C. 5. Henderson L. 22. Graham L. 20. Adams K. 8. Spencer B. 21. Tait D. 37. Arfield S. 23. Ross E. 29. Miller C. 18. Oliver G.	1. Mitchell D. (G) 30. Megwa K. 23. Ashcroft L. 19. McBeth L. 20. O'Reilly D. 8. Bannigan S. 4. Martin S. 26. Stanway B. 18. Ablade T. 9. Graham B. (C) 10. Chalmers L.
Substitutes
11. Agyeman A. 4. Lang T. 26. Mackie S. 3. McCann L. 31. Munro R. (G) 10. Nesbitt A. 24. O'Connor D. 16. Stewart B. 2. Yeats F.	38. Cameron L. (G) 14. Crawford R. 39. Falconer M. 21. Fitzpatrick A. 7. Mackay D. 29. Mackenzie Z. 5. Muirhead A. 6. Turner K.
Coaches
McGlynn J.	Doolan K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
3', 1 - 0, Arfield S. ⚽,
10', 1 - 1, Chalmers L. ⚽, Ablade T. (A),
24', 1 - 2, Graham B. ⚽, Chalmers L. (A),
33', Graham B. 🟨,
34', Spencer B. (Pen),
35', 2 - 2, Oliver G. ⚽,
37', Graham B. 🟨,
40', 3 - 2, Arfield S. ⚽, Ross E. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', McBeth L. 🟨,
58', 4 - 2, Arfield S. (Pen),
61', Graham L. ↓, McCann L. ↑,
66', Stanway B. ↓, Fitzpatrick A. ↑,
66', Martin S. ↓, Turner K. ↑,
66', Megwa K. ↓, Crawford R. ↑,
72', Arfield S. ↓, Nesbitt A. ↑,
72', Donaldson C. ↓, O'Connor D. ↑,
72', Tait D. ↓, Yeats F. ↑,
76', 5 - 2, McCann L. ⚽, Miller C. (A),
77', Ablade T. ↓, Mackenzie Z. ↑,
79', Oliver G. ↓, Stewart B. ↑,
83', Ashcroft L. ↓, Muirhead A. ↑,
90+1', Muirhead A. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Falkirk won 3.

Recent matches Falkirk is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Partick is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Falkirk could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Falkirk is a favorite.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Falkirk won 5 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 16:22 (average 0.9:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Falkirk won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:5 (average 0.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Falkirk FC
Scottish Football Championship
31.01.25	Falkirk - Livingston	1:2 ✺
25.01.25	Raith Rovers - Falkirk	0:2 ✺
Scottish Cup
19.01.25	Falkirk - Raith Rovers	1:2 ET ✺
Scottish Football Championship
11.01.25	Falkirk - Queens Park	0:0 ✺
27.12.24	Dunfermline Athletic - Falkirk	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLTT
- Partick Thistle
Scottish Football Championship
01.02.25	Partick Thistle - Greenock Morton	2:2 ✺
25.01.25	Ayr United - Partick Thistle	2:1 ✺
10.01.25	Hamilton Academical - Partick Thistle	1:2 ✺
04.01.25	Partick Thistle - Dunfermline Athletic	1:4 ✺
31.12.24	Greenock Morton - Partick Thistle	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
12.10.24	Partick Thistle - Falkirk	1:1
24.08.24	Falkirk - Partick Thistle	2:1
Scottish League Cup
22.07.23	Partick Thistle - Falkirk	2:3 penalties
Scottish Challenge Cup
23.09.22	Falkirk - Partick Thistle	2:0
Scottish League One
29.04.21	Partick Thistle - Falkirk	5:0
26.12.20	Falkirk - Partick Thistle	0:0
07.11.20	Partick Thistle - Falkirk	2:2

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