Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 14

Date: 12 December 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Carlos Osorio (Oliveira de Azemeis)

Referee: Brazao M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Japan	DAZN Japan
Portugal	Sport TV5


	Oliveirense		Chaves

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.1	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.18
	3.54	3.23	2.25
	3.43	3.22	2.17	Watch
	3.3	2.9	2.15
	3.42	3.14	2.16	Watch
	3.33	3.14	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↓ (4.15)	3.1 ↓ (3.53)	2.17 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oliveirense
27.6%

Draw
29.8%

Chaves
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.5%

26.5%

51%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.9%

25.7%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oliveirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oliveirense's performance.

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chaves might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oliveirense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chaves could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Oliveirense - Chaves Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Chaves (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ribeiro R. (G) 2. Douglas Borel 4. Bura (C) 75. Namora N. 19. Lopes A. 10. Bruno Silva 14. Pereira D. 8. Ondoa F. 21. Silva J. 11. Joanderson 9. Martelo P.	23. Gudzulic M. (G) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 33. Simoes T. 15. Carraca (C) 19. Tiago Almeida 8. Pinho P. 97. Joao Teixeira 30. Kusso D. 21. Wellington Carvalho 17. Roberto 77. Reinaldo
Substitutes
26. Bastos L. 16. Diallo A. 6. Dioh I. 40. Greis N. (G) 7. Joao Adriano 22. Keating T. 54. Martins S. 99. Sabino 25. Takahashi T.	44. Bikoro F. 27. Esajas R. 20. Ktatau 9. Milovanovic U. 7. Paulo Victor 18. Pereira H. 10. Pina R. 26. Rodrigues G. 1. Vozinha (G)
Coaches
Pinto J.	Martins F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Ondoa F. ⚽,
34', Ondoa F. 🟨,
45+2', Pinho P. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Simoes T. ⚽, Joao Teixeira (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Wellington Carvalho ↓, Ktatau ↑,
47', 2 - 1, Martelo P. ⚽, Joanderson (A),
54', 2 - 2, Reinaldo (Penalty Awarded),
61', Bruno Rodrigues 🟨,
72', Joanderson ↓, Joao Adriano ↑,
73', 2 - 3, Roberto ⚽, Tiago Almeida (A),
76', Gudzulic M. 🟨,
78', Roberto ↓, Milovanovic U. ↑,
83', Ondoa F. ↓, Dioh I. ↑,
83', Silva J. ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
84', Joao Teixeira ↓, Esajas R. ↑,
89', Pinho P. ↓, Bikoro F. ↑,
90+1', Lopes A. ↓, Bastos L. ↑,
90+1', Bruno Silva ↓, Martins S. ↑,
90+7', Bikoro F. 🟨,
90+12', Namora N. 🟨,
90+13', Bastos L. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oliveirense won 2.

Oliveirense has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chaves is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Chaves is seen as the favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Oliveirense won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:23. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Oliveirense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:11. (average 0.5:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Oliveirense - the odds 4.15 are the expected chance of winning is 22.51%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 2
06.12.25	Benfica B - Oliveirense	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Oliveirense - Leixões	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Portimonense - Oliveirense	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Oliveirense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
29.10.25	Oliveirense - Porto B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWTLW
- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
07.12.25	Chaves - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Torreense - Chaves	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Chaves - Sporting Lisbon B	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Leixões - Chaves	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Chaves - Porto B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
15.03.25	Chaves - Oliveirense	4:0
26.10.24	Oliveirense - Chaves	0:3
07.03.21	Oliveirense - Chaves	0:1
20.10.20	Chaves - Oliveirense	0:2
07.12.19	Chaves - Oliveirense	0:2
02.04.16	Oliveirense - Chaves	0:3
08.11.15	Chaves - Oliveirense	1:1

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