Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 17

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Farense		Portimonense

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.68	3.65	4.65
	1.69	3.87	4.66	Watch
	1.65	3.5	4.8
	1.68	3.81	4.77	Watch
	1.64	3.66	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.8)	3.72 ↑ (3.58)	4.77 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
55.6%

Draw
25%

Portimonense
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

25.7%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

20.6%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Portimonense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-14.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Farense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portimonense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20%	30%

Farense - Portimonense Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Portimonense will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Farense (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Portimonense (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Araujo B. (G) 3. D'Agrella L. 26. Ruben 5. Romero F. 34. Herrero T. 80. Ndiaye A. 6. Derick Poloni 10. Almeida B. 88. Teixeira R. 25. Dorregaray D. 7. Costa R. (C)	77. Cibois S. (G) 2. Abel A. 37. Mateus Sarara 73. Junior M. 17. Joao Reis (C) 15. Xavier 47. Cagro W. 31. Edney 8. Lobato S. 18. Mamede 93. Welinton Junior
Substitutes
4. Alysson 17. Candeias A. 9. Carter A. 43. Dario Miranda 21. Jaiminho 8. Menino M. 14. Poveda D. 90. Sangare B. 30. Tannander J. (G)	90. Canario F. 66. Canji A. 21. Dauda M. 7. Djassi D. 40. Joao Vitor 26. Maycon Cleiton (G) 6. Neves S. 16. Thauan Lara 23. Ze Gabriel
Coaches
Neto P.	Fernandes T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Teixeira R. 🟨,
42', D'Agrella L. ↓, Dario Miranda ↑,
45', Lobato S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Teixeira R. ↓, Menino M. ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Mamede ⚽,
60', Dorregaray D. ↓, Carter A. ↑,
66', Lobato S. ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
71', Ndiaye A. 🟨,
71', Derick Poloni ↓, Candeias A. ↑,
71', Almeida B. ↓, Jaiminho ↑,
73', Mamede ↓, Djassi D. ↑,
73', Welinton Junior ↓, Dauda M. ↑,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Farense won 0.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Farense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Farense is considered a favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Farense won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Farense won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1.2:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	SC Farense	6	3	2	1	11:5	6	11
11	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	4:6	-2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Portimonense - the odds 4 are the expected chance of winning is 23.02%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
28.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Farense	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Farense - Leiria	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Farense - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.12.25	Académico de Viseu - Farense	3:0 ✺
08.12.25	Farense - Vizela	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLLLW
- Portimonense SC
Portuguese Liga 2
20.12.25	Chaves - Portimonense	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Portimonense - Leixões	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitânia - Portimonense	3:2 ✺
30.11.25	Portimonense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Porto B - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
02.08.24	Portimonense - Farense	0:0
Liga Portugal
18.05.24	Farense - Portimonense	1:3
12.01.24	Portimonense - Farense	1:0
27.04.21	Farense - Portimonense	1:1
04.01.21	Portimonense - Farense	2:0
Club Friendly
22.07.17	Portimonense - Farense	3:2
Portuguese Liga 2
27.02.16	Portimonense - Farense	1:0

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