Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6


	Farense		Rio Ave

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.37	3.1	3
	2.4	3.1	3.1
	2.47	3.23	3.15
	2.44	3.12	3.13	Watch
	2.4	2.9	3.2	Watch
	2.46	3.21	3.21	Watch
	2.4	3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.49)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	3.14 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Farense
39.2%

Draw
30.6%

Rio Ave
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

29.8%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

30.2%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	27.3%	18.2%

Farense - Rio Ave Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Velho R. (G) 3. Moreno M. 4. Jorge A. 5. Ribeiro T. 28. Pastor 21. Soares F. 93. Menino M. 2. Paulo Victor 7. Balde E. 9. Tomane 77. Matias M. (C)	1. Miszta C. (G) 17. Vrousai M. (C) 23. Petrasso F. 3. Ntoi A. 98. Richards O. 80. Pohlmann O. 34. Tiknaz D. E. 16. Aguilera Zamora B. 11. Morais T. 9. Clayton 19. Kiko Bondoso
Substitutes
11. Bermejo A. 31. Derick Poloni 71. Jaiminho 80. Justo S. 1. Kaique Pereira (G) 44. Lucas Africo 14. Poveda D. 34. Raul Silva 70. Rivaldo	7. Andre Luiz 21. Graca J. 27. Medina T. 76. Neto M. 6. Novais J. 42. Pantalon R. 99. Sina A. (G) 20. Tome J. 14. Zoabi K.
Coaches
Marreco T.	Petit

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Kiko Bondoso ⚽, Vrousai M. (A),
34', Soares F. 🟨,
38', Clayton 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Paulo Victor ↓, Derick Poloni ↑,
50', Pastor 🟨,
59', 0 - 2, Clayton ⚽, Pohlmann O. (A),
60', Morais T. ↓, Andre Luiz ↑,
61', Menino M. 🟨,
62', Miszta C. 🟨,
63', Ribeiro T. ↓, Poveda D. ↑,
63', Soares F. ↓, Bermejo A. ↑,
63', Pastor ↓, Jaiminho ↑,
71', Richards O. 🟨,
72', Derick Poloni 🟨,
75', Pohlmann O. ↓, Neto M. ↑,
77', Matias M. ↓, Raul Silva ↑,
82', Petrasso F. 🟨,
83', 1 - 2, Tomane (Pen),
84', Raul Silva 🟨,
86', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Pantalon R. ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Farense won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Farense: Claudio Falcao (Yellow Cards)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Farense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8:13 (average 1:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Farense won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 0.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Rio Ave - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 32.59%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
19.01.25	Moreirense - Farense	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
14.01.25	Farense - Benfica	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.01.25	Santa Clara - Farense	0:0 ✺
29.12.24	Farense - Vitoria Guimarães	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	Famalicão - Farense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 TLTTW
- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
18.01.25	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
12.01.25	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.01.25	Gil Vicente - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
29.12.24	Rio Ave - Nacional	2:1 ✺
23.12.24	Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
17.08.24	Rio Ave - Farense	1:0
16.03.24	Farense - Rio Ave	1:1
29.10.23	Rio Ave - Farense	3:4
Portuguese League Cup
13.12.22	Rio Ave - Farense	2:1
Portuguese Liga 2
23.01.22	Rio Ave - Farense	2:1
15.08.21	Farense - Rio Ave	1:1
Liga Portugal
07.03.21	Rio Ave - Farense	2:0

Upcoming Matches