Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 17

Date: 5 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio de São Miguel (Ponta Delgada)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	AntenaPLAY
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Santa Clara		Farense

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.3	6.25	Watch
	1.65	3.4	6
	1.72	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.66	3.52	5.62	Watch
	1.7	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.73	3.5	5.3	Watch
	1.72	3.4	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.64)	3.42 ↓ (3.84)	5.67 ↑ (5.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

Watch this match and Liga Portugal with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: GolTV (English)

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Current Win Probability

Santa Clara
55.7%

Draw
27.6%

Farense
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

24.6%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

23.5%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.9%	8.7%	17.4%

Santa Clara - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Santa Clara will win (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Farense will win (votes: 4 - 17.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santa Clara: 56% – 91.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Batista (C) 23. Sidney Lima 27. Ramos G. 21. Venancio F. 2. Diogo Calila 35. Serginho 6. Adriano Firmino 32. Araujo M. 77. Klismahn G. 70. Vinicius Lopes 11. Gabriel Silva	33. Velho R. (G) 44. Lucas Africo 29. Claudio Falcao 3. Moreno M. 28. Pastor 93. Menino M. 6. Neto 2. Paulo Victor 79. Merghem M. 9. Tomane 77. Matias M. (C)
Substitutes
19. Almeida B. 41. Daniel Borges 8. Ferreira P. 28. Habraao 42. Lucas Soares 3. Matheus Pereira 12. Neneca (G) 10. Ricardinho 9. Safira	7. Balde E. 23. Canizares L. (G) 31. Derick Poloni 71. Jaiminho 14. Poveda D. 34. Raul Silva 70. Rivaldo 50. Seruca A. 21. Soares F.
Coaches
Matos V.	Marreco T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Araujo M. ↓, Matheus Pereira ↑,
36', Moreno M. 🟨,
45', Moreno M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Merghem M. ↓, Raul Silva ↑,
46', Serginho ↓, Safira ↑,
60', Tomane ↓, Jaiminho ↑,
61', Diogo Calila 🟨,
74', Safira 🟨,
75', Venancio F. ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
75', Vinicius Lopes ↓, Ferreira P. ↑,
80', Menino M. ↓, Seruca A. ↑,
80', Matias M. ↓, Derick Poloni ↑,
81', Ricardinho 🟨,
89', Jaiminho 🟨,
89', Lucas Africo ↓, Soares F. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santa Clara won 3.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Farense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Santa Clara is a favorite.

There will not play in Santa Clara: Pacheco P. (Knee Injury) Rocha L. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Farense: Jorge A. (Yellow Cards)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Santa Clara won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13:7 (average 1.3:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Santa Clara won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9:1 (average 2.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
30.12.24	Famalicão - Santa Clara	1:2 ✺
22.12.24	Santa Clara - Braga	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.24	Sporting Lisbon - Santa Clara	2:1 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
15.12.24	Arouca - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
07.12.24	Santa Clara - Rio Ave	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLLW
- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
29.12.24	Farense - Vitoria Guimarães	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	Famalicão - Farense	1:2 ✺
14.12.24	Farense - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
08.12.24	Boavista - Farense	1:1 ✺
29.11.24	Farense - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese League Cup
01.08.21	Farense - Santa Clara	0:1 penalties
Liga Portugal
19.05.21	Santa Clara - Farense	4:0
04.02.21	Farense - Santa Clara	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
21.02.16	Farense - Santa Clara	1:0
20.09.15	Santa Clara - Farense	2:0
08.02.15	Santa Clara - Farense	1:1
24.08.14	Farense - Santa Clara	0:1

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