What is the expert prediction for Fatih Karagümrükspor vs Fenerbahçe?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Fatih Karagümrükspor vs Fenerbahçe. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Fatih Karagümrükspor vs Fenerbahçe Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, March 13, 2026)

Match Info

Super Lig - Round 26

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Atatürk Olimpiyat (Istanbul)

Referee: Turkmen M. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 1
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Hong-kong	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Israel	Sport 2
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	beIN Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+


	Fatih Karagümrükspor		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	7	4.33	1.41	Watch
	8.37	5.04	1.32
	7.24	4.46	1.48
	6.34	4.47	1.49
	6	4	1.44
	5.7	4.33	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.78 ↓ (7.45)	4.44 ↓ (4.76)	1.45 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fatih Karagümrükspor
13.9%

Draw
21.2%

Fenerbahçe
64.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.9%

20.1%

67%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.3%

19.2%

70.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fatih Karagümrükspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fenerbahçe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.1%	9.4%	87.5%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Karagümrük will win (votes: 1 - 3.3%). Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 27 - 90%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fenerbahçe: 79.3% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - Karagümrük (5.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Fenerbahçe (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Fenerbahçe (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fenerbahçe will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Karagümrük (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Fenerbahçe (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Grbic I. (C) 47. Esgaio R. 3. Lichnovsky I. 94. Cinar A. 25. Mladenovic F. 5. Kranevitter M. 6. Elmaz B. 70. Serginho 21. Cukur T. 72. Kalayci B. 23. Larsson S.	34. Gunok M. (G) 18. Muldur M. 14. Demir Y. E. 24. Oosterwolde J. 22. Mercan L. 17. Kante N. 6. Guendouzi M. 5. Yuksek I. 7. Fred (C) 9. Akturkoglu K. 26. Cherif S.
Substitutes
88. Ahmed T. 80. Babicka S. 99. Beklevic F. (G) 24. Ersoy B. 11. Johnson D. 15. Kone 22. Kurucuk F. 33. Kurukalip C. 19. Onogo Y. 8. Ozcan B.	21. Asensio M. 70. Aydin O. 39. Biterge E. (G) 3. Brown A. 13. Cetin T. (G) 54. Ekici A. 20. Musaba A. 45. Nene D. 37. Skriniar M. 67. Uregen K.
Coaches
Stanojevic A.	Tedesco D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Elmaz B. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 0, Serginho ⚽, Lichnovsky I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yuksek I. ↓, Asensio M. ↑,
46', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
46', Muldur M. ↓, Brown A. ↑,
46', Fred ↓, Musaba A. ↑,
50', Oosterwolde J. 🟨,
50', Serginho 🟨,
55', Larsson S. ↓, Ozcan B. ↑,
65', Elmaz B. ↓, Babicka S. ↑,
75', Kalayci B. ↓, Ahmed T. ↑,
75', Mladenovic F. ↓, Kurukalip C. ↑,
75', Serginho ↓, Johnson D. ↑,
79', Mercan L. ↓, Aydin O. ↑,
82', Kante N. 🟨,
90+7', Aydin O. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 0.

In recent matches, Karagümrük has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fenerbahçe is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Karagümrük has had a series of away games.

In this match, Fenerbahçe is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Karagümrük: Camacho J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Alvarez E. (Ankle Injury) Ederson (Yellow Cards) Semedo N. (Injury) Soyuncu C. (Muscle Injury) Talisca (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Karagümrük: Biraschi D. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:21. (average 1.4:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Karagümrük won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Fenerbahce ✔	34	21	11	2	77:37	40	74
18	Karagumruk ✔	34	8	6	20	31:54	-23	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish Super League
08.03.26	Gaziantep - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.03.26	Fethiyespor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
27.02.26	Trabzonspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Samsunspor	0:0 ✺
16.02.26	Kasımpaşa - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWLTL
- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
08.03.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	3:2 ✺
Turkish Cup
04.03.26	Gaziantep - Fenerbahçe	0:4 ✺
Turkish Super League
01.03.26	Antalyaspor - Fenerbahçe	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
23.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Kasımpaşa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
19.10.25	Fenerbahçe - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1
14.04.24	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fenerbahçe	1:2
26.11.23	Fenerbahçe - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1
10.04.23	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fenerbahçe	1:2
09.10.22	Fenerbahçe - Fatih Karagümrükspor	5:4
15.05.22	Fenerbahçe - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:0
22.12.21	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fenerbahçe	1:1

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
UEFA Champions League
29.07.26	Górnik Zabrze - Fenerbahçe	✺

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Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fenerbahçe: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide