Match Info

Super Lig - Round 26

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Atatürk Olimpiyat (Istanbul)

Referee: Turkmen M. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+


	Fatih Karagümrükspor		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	7	4.33	1.41	Watch
	8.37	5.04	1.32
	7.24	4.46	1.48
	6.34	4.47	1.49
	6	4	1.44
	5.7	4.33	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.78 ↓ (7.45)	4.44 ↓ (4.76)	1.45 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fatih Karagümrükspor
13.9%

Draw
21.2%

Fenerbahçe
64.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.9%

20.1%

67%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.3%

19.2%

70.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fatih Karagümrükspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fenerbahçe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.1%	9.4%	87.5%

Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Karagümrük (5.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Fenerbahçe (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Fenerbahçe (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (27 of 30 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.26% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fenerbahçe will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Karagümrük (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Fenerbahçe (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Grbic I. (C) 47. Esgaio R. 3. Lichnovsky I. 94. Cinar A. 25. Mladenovic F. 5. Kranevitter M. 6. Elmaz B. 70. Serginho 21. Cukur T. 72. Kalayci B. 23. Larsson S.	34. Gunok M. (G) 18. Muldur M. 14. Demir Y. E. 24. Oosterwolde J. 22. Mercan L. 17. Kante N. 6. Guendouzi M. 5. Yuksek I. 7. Fred (C) 9. Akturkoglu K. 26. Cherif S.
Substitutes
88. Ahmed T. 80. Babicka S. 99. Beklevic F. (G) 24. Ersoy B. 11. Johnson D. 15. Kone 22. Kurucuk F. 33. Kurukalip C. 19. Onogo Y. 8. Ozcan B.	21. Asensio M. 70. Aydin O. 39. Biterge E. (G) 3. Brown A. 13. Cetin T. (G) 54. Ekici A. 20. Musaba A. 45. Nene D. 37. Skriniar M. 67. Uregen K.
Coaches
Stanojevic A.	Tedesco D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Elmaz B. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 0, Serginho ⚽, Lichnovsky I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yuksek I. ↓, Asensio M. ↑,
46', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
46', Muldur M. ↓, Brown A. ↑,
46', Fred ↓, Musaba A. ↑,
50', Oosterwolde J. 🟨,
50', Serginho 🟨,
55', Larsson S. ↓, Ozcan B. ↑,
65', Elmaz B. ↓, Babicka S. ↑,
75', Kalayci B. ↓, Ahmed T. ↑,
75', Mladenovic F. ↓, Kurukalip C. ↑,
75', Serginho ↓, Johnson D. ↑,
79', Mercan L. ↓, Aydin O. ↑,
82', Kante N. 🟨,
90+7', Aydin O. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 0.

In recent matches, Karagümrük has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fenerbahçe is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Karagümrük has had a series of away games.

In this match, Fenerbahçe is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Karagümrük: Camacho J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Alvarez E. (Ankle Injury) Ederson (Yellow Cards) Semedo N. (Injury) Soyuncu C. (Muscle Injury) Talisca (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Karagümrük: Biraschi D. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:21. (average 1.4:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Karagümrük won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fenerbahce	7	4	1	2	19:6	13	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish Super League
08.03.26	Gaziantep - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.03.26	Fethiyespor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
27.02.26	Trabzonspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Samsunspor	0:0 ✺
16.02.26	Kasımpaşa - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWLTL
- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
08.03.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	3:2 ✺
Turkish Cup
04.03.26	Gaziantep - Fenerbahçe	0:4 ✺
Turkish Super League
01.03.26	Antalyaspor - Fenerbahçe	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
23.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Kasımpaşa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
19.10.25	Fenerbahçe - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1
14.04.24	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fenerbahçe	1:2
26.11.23	Fenerbahçe - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1
10.04.23	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fenerbahçe	1:2
09.10.22	Fenerbahçe - Fatih Karagümrükspor	5:4
15.05.22	Fenerbahçe - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:0
22.12.21	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fenerbahçe	1:1

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