Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos (Felgueiras)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3


	Felgueiras		Portimonense

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	3.6
	1.87	3.2	3.6
	1.92	3.35	3.75
	2	3.55	3.99
	5.52	1.41	5.54	Watch
	1.91	3.2	3.6
	1.92	3.45	3.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (1.93)	3.07 ↓ (3.34)	3.98 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Felgueiras
41.6%

Draw
33%

Portimonense
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

27.6%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

27%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Felgueiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Felgueiras's form might have worsened.

Portimonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Felgueiras than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Felgueiras, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Felgueiras - Portimonense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mateus Pasinato (G) 34. Silva A. 3. Pinto J. 33. Dario 17. Cruz F. 10. Michel Costa 8. Landinho (C) 18. Gabi 5. Parente T. 7. Rivas M. 19. Lucas Duarte	26. Maycon Cleiton (G) 5. Heitor 32. Jarleysom 37. Mateus Sarara 17. Joao Reis (C) 18. Mamede 87. Pancadas Casimiro J. D. 8. Lobato S. 7. Djassi D. 93. Welinton Junior 16. Thauan Lara
Substitutes
45. Aidara M. 77. Beni 20. Berna 4. Dudu Cruz 61. Eiro 25. Felipe Scheibig (G) 11. Joao Rafael 79. Leite T. 6. Martins H.	47. Cagro W. 90. Canario F. 77. Cibois S. (G) 21. Dauda M. 22. De Bolle L. 19. Dju M. 31. Edney 73. Junior M. 6. Neves S.
Coaches
Ferreira R.	Fernandes T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Lucas Duarte ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, Welinton Junior ⚽,
45+2', Michel Costa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Heitor ↓, Edney ↑,
64', Lucas Duarte 🟨,
66', Michel Costa ↓, Leite T. ↑,
76', Djassi D. ↓, Dju M. ↑,
76', Mamede ↓, Cagro W. ↑,
81', Lucas Duarte ↓, Berna ↑,
81', Pancadas Casimiro J. D. ↓, De Bolle L. ↑,
81', Joao Reis ↓, Neves S. ↑,
90', Cruz F. 🟨,
90+5', Dario 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Felgueiras might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Felgueiras won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Felgueiras won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	4:6	-2	7
13	Felgueiras	6	1	3	2	5:6	-1	6

Last Results with these Odds

Felgueiras - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 47.8%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Portimonense - the odds 3.76 are the expected chance of winning is 24.56%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Felgueiras
Portuguese Liga 2
04.05.26	Porto B - Felgueiras	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Felgueiras - Leiria	2:1 ✺
20.04.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Felgueiras	0:1 ✺
10.04.26	Felgueiras - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Académico de Viseu - Felgueiras	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 LWWTW
- Portimonense SC
Portuguese Liga 2
03.05.26	Portimonense - Chaves	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Leixões - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Portimonense - Lusitânia	3:2 ✺
12.04.26	Marítimo - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Oliveirense - Portimonense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
11.01.26	Portimonense - Felgueiras	0:0
18.01.25	Portimonense - Felgueiras	3:2
12.08.24	Felgueiras - Portimonense	0:0

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