Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 31

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos (Felgueiras)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Felgueiras		Leiria

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.9	2.2
	3	3.05	2.35
	3.25	3.16	2.4
	2.94	3.19	2.44	Watch
	3	2.9	2.3
	3.25	3.04	2.31	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.59)	3.04 ↓ (3.28)	2.33 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Felgueiras
29.9%

Draw
30.4%

Leiria
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

28.5%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

28.7%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Felgueiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Felgueiras's form might have worsened.

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Felgueiras than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Felgueiras, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Felgueiras - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Leiria will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mateus Pasinato (G) 3. Pinto J. 4. Dudu Cruz 34. Silva A. 17. Cruz F. 8. Landinho (C) 10. Michel Costa 18. Gabi 5. Parente T. 7. Rivas M. 19. Lucas Duarte	99. Odehnal J. (G) 68. Maga 44. Marcelo 5. Rofino V. G. 3. Baro M. 41. Daniel Borges 21. Pires M. 19. Fernandez P. 9. Munoz J. (C) 11. Jair da Silva 86. Michel D.
Substitutes
77. Beni 20. Berna 33. Dario 61. Eiro 25. Felipe Scheibig (G) 14. Jean-Marie M. 79. Leite T. 6. Martins H. 9. Santos Teixeira L.	8. Kouassi E. 18. Lottin A. 17. Lucho Vega 45. Mendes J. 7. Quizera F. 15. Silva J. 93. Sousa F. 52. Sylla H. 16. Ze Pedro
Coaches
Ferreira R.	Pereira F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Jair da Silva ⚽,
17', Marcelo 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Lucas Duarte ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Parente T. ↓, Berna ↑,
67', Pinto J. ↓, Dario ↑,
69', Maga ↓, Sylla H. ↑,
69', Michel D. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
74', Cruz F. ↓, Eiro ↑,
74', Lucas Duarte ↓, Leite T. ↑,
76', 2 - 1, Rivas M. ⚽,
80', Sylla H. 🟨,
83', Jair da Silva ↓, Quizera F. ↑,
83', Pires M. ↓, Lucho Vega ↑,
84', Silva A. 🟨,
86', Landinho ↓, Martins H. ↑,
87', Mateus Pasinato 🟨,
88', Daniel Borges ↓, Lottin A. ↑,
90+7', Mendes J. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 4).

Felgueiras has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leiria is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Leiria may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Felgueiras won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.8:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Felgueiras won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Leiria	6	3	1	2	10:7	3	10
13	Felgueiras	6	1	3	2	5:6	-1	6

Last Results with these Odds

Felgueiras - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.09%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Leiria - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.41%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Felgueiras
Portuguese Liga 2
20.04.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Felgueiras	0:1 ✺
10.04.26	Felgueiras - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Académico de Viseu - Felgueiras	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Felgueiras - Torreense	0:3 ✺
13.03.26	Farense - Felgueiras	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WTWLT
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
18.04.26	Leiria - Penafiel	4:2 ✺
11.04.26	Benfica B - Leiria	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Leiria - Lusitânia	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Leiria - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
20.03.26	Chaves - Leiria	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
13.12.25	Leiria - Felgueiras	2:3
08.03.25	Felgueiras - Leiria	2:2
11.10.24	Leiria - Felgueiras	1:3
Portuguese Liga 3
06.05.23	Felgueiras - Leiria	0:2
16.04.23	Leiria - Felgueiras	4:1

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