Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 21

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Referee: Brazao M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sporting TV, Sport TV1


	Lusitânia		Felgueiras

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.15
	2.7	3	2.37
	3.15	3.05	2.28
	3.5	3.08	2.31
	3.24	3.18	2.27	Watch
	3.25	2.8	2.2
	3.33	3.12	2.23	Watch
	3.4	3	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (2.66)	3.03 ↓ (3.08)	2.25 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
28.6%

Draw
30.4%

Felgueiras
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

30.4%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

30.4%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lusitânia's form might have worsened.

Felgueiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Felgueiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lusitânia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felgueiras than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Felgueiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	88.9%	0%

Lusitânia - Felgueiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Lusitânia will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 68.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 8 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Lusitânia (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 8 - 88.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Vitor Hugo (G) 16. Rocha L. 28. Mesquita T. (C) 22. Faria B. 3. Josue Sa 12. Arsenio 8. Tokinho Doria 21. Joao Vasco 88. Teixeira M. 77. Tiago Dias 11. Pereira M.	25. Felipe Scheibig (G) 61. Eiro 33. Dario 34. Silva A. 5. Parente T. 18. Gabi 6. Martins H. 8. Landinho (C) 79. Leite T. 19. Lucas Duarte 20. Berna
Substitutes
74. Braga G. 29. Cerveira T. 60. Danny 27. Fabinho 7. Martins R. 24. Mimito 19. Palacios A. 9. Silva J. 23. Sousa M. (G)	45. Aidara M. 2. Casimiro 17. Cruz F. 4. Dudu Cruz 41. Mateus Pasinato (G) 10. Michel Costa 3. Pinto J. 7. Rivas M. 9. Santos Teixeira L.
Coaches
Miguel Pedro	Bento A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Rocha L. (Own goal),
32', Berna 🟨,
39', Parente T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Tiago Dias ↓, Silva J. ↑,
57', Parente T. 🟨,
60', Leite T. ↓, Santos Teixeira L. ↑,
65', Teixeira M. ↓, Martins R. ↑,
68', Mesquita T. 🟨,
70', Berna ↓, Pinto J. ↑,
70', Mesquita T. ↓, Danny ↑,
71', Pinto J. 🟨,
74', 1 - 1, Santos Teixeira L. (Own goal),
78', Santos Teixeira L. 🟨,
87', Tokinho Doria ↓, Mimito ↑,
87', Rocha L. ↓, Cerveira T. ↑,
89', Silva A. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 1, Arsenio ⚽,
90+5', Dario ↓, Cruz F. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lusitânia won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Lusitânia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Lusitânia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lusitânia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:0. (average 1.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lusitania FC	6	5	1	0	11:4	7	16
13	Felgueiras	6	1	3	2	5:6	-1	6

Last Results with these Odds

Lusitânia - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 35.15%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
29.01.26	Benfica B - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Chaves - Lusitânia	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Lusitânia - Marítimo	0:4 ✺
08.01.26	Lusitânia - Leixões	2:2 ✺
30.12.25	Torreense - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WTLTW
- FC Felgueiras
Portuguese Liga 2
31.01.26	Felgueiras - Chaves	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Marítimo - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Felgueiras - Leixões	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Portimonense - Felgueiras	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Felgueiras - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
30.08.25	Felgueiras - Lusitânia	3:1
Portuguese Liga 3
28.04.24	Felgueiras - Lusitânia	2:0
02.03.24	Lusitânia - Felgueiras	1:0
05.11.23	Felgueiras - Lusitânia	2:1
08.08.23	Lusitânia - Felgueiras	0:0
12.02.22	Felgueiras - Lusitânia	0:0
07.11.21	Lusitânia - Felgueiras	2:0

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