Match Info

Super Lig - Round 4

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu (Istanbul)

Referee: Meler H. U. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 1
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Laola1
Bolivia	ESPN 7
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	ESPN 7
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Ecuador	ESPN 7
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7
Germany	Laola1
Hong-kong	beIN Connect
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kosovo	ART Sport 4
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 7
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	beIN Connect, beIN Sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Digiturk
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 7


	Fenerbahçe		Beşiktaş

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.30	3.25
	2.14	3.24	3.29
	2.2	3.45	3.5
	2.13	3.42	3.44
	2.15	3.35	3.4
	2.18	3.48	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.74)	3.36 ↓ (3.87)	3.39 ↓ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
44.1%

Draw
28.1%

Beşiktaş
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

24.1%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

23.8%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fenerbahçe's form might have worsened.

Beşiktaş has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Beşiktaş's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fenerbahçe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beşiktaş than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Beşiktaş, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	25%	16.7%

Fenerbahçe - Beşiktaş Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Beşiktaş will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fenerbahçe: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Fenerbahçe (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Fenerbahçe (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 15. Ake N. 3. Brown A. 6. Guendouzi M. 91. Kante N. 11. Greenwood M. 17. Kahveci I. 70. Aydin O. 19. Muriqi V.	1. Nubel A. (G) 62. Murillo M. 12. Agbadou E. 53. Topcu E. 33. Yilmaz R. 6. Ozcan S. 18. Cerny V. 15. Olaitan J. 10. Kokcu O. (C) 19. Trossard L. 28. Vlahovic D.
Substitutes
7. Akturkoglu K. 14. Demir Y. E. 28. Elmaz B. 34. Gunok M. (G) 9. Lukaku R. 22. Mercan L. 18. Muldur M. 45. Nene D. 21. Peprah K. 5. Yuksek I.	80. Alemdar D. (G) 22. Bulut T. 35. Djalo T. 29. Fakili I. 8. Kayra Yilmaz K. 90. Kilicsoy S. 4. Ndidi W. 9. Oh Hyeon-Gyu 11. Ouattara K. 17. Poku E.
Coaches
Kartal I.	Italiano V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 1 - 0, Skriniar M. ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, Yilmaz R. ⚽, Trossard L. (A),
45', Topcu E. 🟨,
45+1', Greenwood M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kahveci I. ↓, Akturkoglu K. ↑,
46', Yilmaz R. ↓, Ouattara K. ↑,
52', Skriniar M. 🟨,
52', Ederson 🟨,
53', Vlahovic D. 🟨,
59', Cerny V. 🟨,
64', Cerny V. ↓, Fakili I. ↑,
68', Aydin O. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
68', Muriqi V. ↓, Lukaku R. ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Vlahovic D. ⚽, Kokcu O. (A),
76', Guendouzi M. 🟨,
76', Olaitan J. ↓, Ndidi W. ↑,
77', Topcu E. ↓, Djalo T. ↑,
84', Guendouzi M. ↓, Yuksek I. ↑,
85', Vlahovic D. ↓, Oh Hyeon-Gyu ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fenerbahçe won 2.

Fenerbahçe is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Beşiktaş has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Fenerbahçe is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Oosterwolde J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Soyuncu C. (Injury) Talisca (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fenerbahçe won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:32. (average 1.5:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Fenerbahçe won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.5:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fenerbahce	7	4	1	2	19:6	13	13
5	Besiktas	6	4	0	2	14:7	7	12

Last Results with these Odds

Fenerbahçe - the odds 1.74 are the expected chance of winning is 53.66%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
30.08.26	Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.08.26	Lyon - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
22.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Konyaspor	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Lyon	1:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
15.08.26	Gençlerbirliği - Fenerbahçe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWTL
- Beşiktaş
Turkish Super League
31.08.26	Beşiktaş - Çorum	6:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.08.26	Kauno Žalgiris - Beşiktaş	1:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
23.08.26	Alanyaspor - Beşiktaş	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
20.08.26	Beşiktaş - Kauno Žalgiris	3:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
16.08.26	Beşiktaş - Eyüpspor	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
05.04.26	Fenerbahçe - Beşiktaş	1:0
Turkish Cup
23.12.25	Fenerbahçe - Beşiktaş	1:2
Turkish Super League
02.11.25	Beşiktaş - Fenerbahçe	2:3
04.05.25	Fenerbahçe - Beşiktaş	0:1
07.12.24	Beşiktaş - Fenerbahçe	1:0
27.04.24	Fenerbahçe - Beşiktaş	2:1
09.12.23	Beşiktaş - Fenerbahçe	1:3

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