Match Info

Persha Liga - Round 18

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Kolos Stadium (Kovalivka)


	Feniks-Mariupol		UCSA

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.2	2.82
	2.21	3.2	2.72
	2.59	3.17	2.59	Watch
	2.26	3.2	2.92
	2.2	3.2	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.53)	3.19 ↓ (3.23)	2.79 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Feniks-Mariupol
39.1%

Draw
28.4%

UCSA
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.1%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

29%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Feniks-Mariupol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

UCSA has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Feniks-Mariupol than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UCSA than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Feniks Mariupol - UCSA Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zhupanskyi V. (G) 39. Balan D. 90. Bogdanov A. (C) 10. Gagun R. 25. Gorin V. 44. Koreshkov V. 77. Kovalyuk R. 84. Kusyi A. 29. Remenyak A. 33. Sydorenko V. 91. Zaloga M.	1. Barantsov K. (G) 73. Castro P. 98. Guerreiro V. 18. Lebedev S. 17. Pedro Acacio 81. Popravka Y. 45. Sabiyev D. 3. Sydorenko D. (C) 7. Sytnykov M. 14. Zakhidnyi P. 28. Zhdanovych O.
Substitutes
14. Bilyi R. 4. Boldenkov V. 11. Buryak R. 66. Melnyk O. 7. Nepeypiev R. 9. Nych N. 8. Panchyshyn O. 16. Radchenko M. 21. Tkachuk A. 19. Vilkhovyi A. 17. Yanchak V. 55. Zadereyko A. (G)	77. Khovayko K. 99. Kovalev A. (G) 21. Matheus Fogo 10. Matheusinho 12. Postemskyi O. (G) 27. Vasin M. 78. Wendell 19. Zherebetskyi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
65', Kovalyuk R. 🟨,
66', Kovalyuk R. ↓, Yanchak V. ↑,
72', Pedro Acacio ↓, Wendell ↑,
78', Zakhidnyi P. 🟨,
81', Zaloga M. ↓, Vilkhovyi A. ↑,
85', Bogdanov A. ↓, Buryak R. ↑,
86', 0 - 1, Zakhidnyi P. ⚽,
90+1', 1 - 1, Buryak R. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Persha Liga (Relegation) and 7).

Recent performances by Feniks-Mariupol have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

UCSA is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

UCSA may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Feniks-Mariupol won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 1:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Feniks-Mariupol won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Feniks-Mariupol
Ukrainian Persha Liga
23.11.25	Prykarpattia Ivano-Frankivsk - Feniks-Mariupol	3:0 ✺
16.11.25	Feniks-Mariupol - Vorskla Poltava	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Viktoriya Sumy - Feniks-Mariupol	1:2 ✺
04.11.25	Feniks-Mariupol - Podillya Khmelnytskyi	0:1 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
30.10.25	Ahrotekh Tyshkivka - Feniks-Mariupol	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LWWLW
- UCSA Kyiv
Ukrainian Persha Liga
22.11.25	UCSA - Vorskla Poltava	1:1 ✺
15.11.25	Podillya Khmelnytskyi - UCSA	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Nyva Ternopil - UCSA	1:4 ✺
01.11.25	UCSA - Metalist Kharkiv	2:1 ✺
24.10.25	Bukovyna Chernivtsi - UCSA	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Ukrainian Persha Liga
17.08.25	UCSA - Feniks-Mariupol	0:0
26.08.24	Feniks-Mariupol - UCSA	2:3
Club Friendly
11.07.24	UCSA - Feniks-Mariupol	6:2

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