Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 29

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ferrocarril Midland		Chacarita Juniors

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.10	5.50
	1.87	2.95	4.50
	1.98	3.00	4.25	Watch
	1.91	3.05	4.05
	1.83	3.15	4.98	Watch
	1.84	2.90	4.60
	1.76	3.12	5.53	Watch
	1.84	2.95	4.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.88)	3.03 ↓ (3.18)	4.75 ↑ (4.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrocarril Midland
50.1%

Draw
30.5%

Chacarita Juniors
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

29.4%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

26.5%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrocarril Midland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Chacarita Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferrocarril Midland that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chacarita Juniors than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Ferrocarril Midland - Chacarita Juniors Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	1. Losas F. (G)
	2. Acosta S.
	3. Chaves N.
	11. Cristaldo F.
	9. Dominguez A.
	8. Facello F.
	10. Guanca C. (C)
	4. Leyendeker M.
	7. Melendez M.
	6. Pantaleone N.
	5. Perez T.
Substitutes
	16. Bustos L.
	14. Calderara B.
	15. Dell Aquila N.
	12. Fernandez G. (G)
	20. Gerez E.
	19. Ortiz P.
	18. Rouxel Y.
	17. Sanabria M.
	13. Vittor S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Bulacio D. 🟨,
18', 🟨,
26', Perez T. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Flores M. ⚽, Luna R. (A),
44', Acosta S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Violini N. 🟨,
59', Cristaldo F. ↓, Ortiz P. ↑,
59', Guanca C. ↓, Bustos L. ↑,
59', Facello F. ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
68', Luna R. ↓, Cao R. ↑,
68', Abruzzese M. ↓, Frattini M. ↑,
77', Perez T. ↓, Rouxel Y. ↑,
77', Melendez M. ↓, Gerez E. ↑,
78', Flores M. ↓, Madalon V. ↑,
89', Cao R. 🟨,
90', Bulacio D. ↓, Borgogno T. ↑,
90', Roseti M. ↓, Aguilar D. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Recent form of Ferrocarril has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chacarita is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ferrocarril may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ferrocarril has had a series of away games.

In this match, Ferrocarril is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferrocarril won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.09.26	San Martín de San Juan - Ferrocarril Midland	3:2 ✺
02.09.26	Colegiales - Ferrocarril Midland	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Nueva Chicago	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Temperley - Ferrocarril Midland	2:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
18.08.26	Banfield - Ferrocarril Midland	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLWLL
- Chacarita Juniors
Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.09.26	Chacarita Juniors - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:1 ✺
28.08.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Chacarita Juniors	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Chacarita Juniors - San Martín de Tucumán	1:2 ✺
19.08.26	Chacarita Juniors - Güemes	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	Estudiantes de Caseros - Chacarita Juniors	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.26	Chacarita Juniors - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0

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