Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 19

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ferrocarril Midland		Gimnasia Jujuy

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.82	3.3
	2.30	2.95	3.10
	2.32	2.88	3.2
	2.49	2.99	3.6
	2.31	2.99	3.37	Watch
	2.45	2.65	3.55
	2.4	2.87	3.3	Watch
	2.3	2.85	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.13)	2.88 ↓ (3.07)	3.33 ↓ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrocarril Midland
39.5%

Draw
32.5%

Gimnasia Jujuy
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

30.1%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

30.9%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrocarril Midland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Gimnasia Jujuy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferrocarril Midland, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimnasia Jujuy than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Ferrocarril Midland - Gimnasia Jujuy Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ferrocarril will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Gimnasia Jujuy will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ferrocarril: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leguiza M. (G) 2. Castorani P. 3. Penepil M. 4. Diaz Laharque L. 6. Gigli L. 5. Violini N. (C) 8. Camano J. 10. Roseti M. 11. Flores M. 7. Guzman D. 9. Perales J.	1. Alvarez M. (G) 2. Cosaro G. 3. Endrizzi E. 6. Varela J. 10. Lazarte M. 4. Minervino D. 5. Soria H. 7. Paradela F. 8. Pombo C. 9. Arganaraz A. 11. Bianchi O.
Substitutes
17. Abruzzese M. 15. Aguilar D. 18. Cao R. 13. Casarico P. 14. Cepeda G. 16. Frattini M. 12. Garcia Rossi S. (G) 20. Luna R. 19. Madalon V.	18. Cachi M. 17. Casa M. 19. Franzoni J. 16. Gallardo D. 12. Gomez G. (G) 14. Lopez D. 15. Maidana F. 20. Menendez C. 13. Villarreal G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Pombo C. 🟨,
20', Flores M. 🟨,
33', Pombo C. 🟨,
34', Cosaro G. 🟨,
41', Castorani P. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Minervino D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Guzman D. ↓, Cao R. ↑,
46', Flores M. ↓, Luna R. ↑,
55', Lazarte M. ↓, Villarreal G. ↑,
55', Paradela F. ↓, Maidana F. ↑,
63', Bianchi O. ↓, Franzoni J. ↑,
65', Castorani P. ↓, Madalon V. ↑,
65', Camano J. ↓, Abruzzese M. ↑,
66', Cao R. 🟨,
77', Arganaraz A. ↓, Gallardo D. ↑,
81', Diaz Laharque L. ↓, Casarico P. ↑,
82', Alvarez M. 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Super final: )).

Ferrocarril has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Gimnasia Jujuy has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ferrocarril is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferrocarril won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Ferrocarril Midland - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 43.49%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Gimnasia Jujuy - the odds 3.51 are the expected chance of winning is 26.4%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera Nacional
21.06.26	Patronato Parana - Ferrocarril Midland	1:1 ✺
13.06.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Atlanta Buenos Aires	1:2 ✺
05.06.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Ferrocarril Midland - San Martín de Tucumán	2:0 ✺
23.05.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TLLWL
- Gimnasia Jujuy
Argentinian Primera Nacional
21.06.26	Güemes - Gimnasia Jujuy	1:3 ✺
17.06.26	Gimnasia Jujuy - Nueva Chicago	4:0 ✺
13.06.26	Gimnasia Jujuy - San Martín de San Juan	2:1 ✺
06.06.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Gimnasia Jujuy	3:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
30.05.26	Gimnasia Jujuy - Belgrano	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.02.26	Gimnasia Jujuy - Ferrocarril Midland	2:1

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