Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 17

Date: 5 June 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio El Gigante del Norte (Salta)


	Gimnasia y Tiro		Ferrocarril Midland

	1	X	2
	2.85	2.70	2.57
	2.55	2.75	2.90
	2.70	2.80	2.88	Watch
	2.80	2.85	3.09
	2.82	2.57	3.13	Watch
	2.60	2.62	3.00
	2.61	2.60	2.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.5)	2.7 ↓ (2.78)	2.93 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnasia y Tiro
34.2%

Draw
34.2%

Ferrocarril Midland
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

33.6%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

34.2%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnasia y Tiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Ferrocarril Midland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia y Tiro than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	80%	20%

Gimnasia y Tiro - Ferrocarril Midland Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ferrocarril will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferrocarril (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cosentino F. (G) 4. Galetto J. 2. Guanini M. 6. Diaz G. 3. Montoya L. 7. Capano J. 5. Sivetti F. 10. Rinaldi N. 8. Banega T. 9. Gordillo L. 11. Rojas F.	1. Leguiza M. (G) 4. Diaz Laharque L. 2. Cepeda G. 6. Gonzalez F. 3. Casarico P. 5. Violini N. (C) 8. Camano J. 11. Campana A. I. 7. Rogoski M. 10. Flores M. 9. Perales J.
Substitutes
18. Aguirre J. 15. Birge M. 20. Contin N. 13. Oviedo J. C. 12. Papaleo J. (G) 17. Rocca J. 19. Rodriguez P. A. 14. Tallura A. 16. Villarreal R.	19. Abruzzese M. 18. Cao R. 14. Castorani P. 16. Frattini M. 12. Garcia Rossi S. (G) 13. Gigli L. 17. Madalon V. 15. Penepil M. 20. Vega J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Gonzalez F. 🟨,
37', Diaz Laharque L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Camano J. ↓, Penepil M. ↑,
57', Rojas F. 🟨,
58', Perales J. ↓, Cao R. ↑,
65', Capano J. ↓, Aguirre J. ↑,
70', Galetto J. ↓, Oviedo J. C. ↑,
71', Flores M. ↓, Frattini M. ↑,
71', Campana A. I. ↓, Vega J. ↑,
78', Diaz Laharque L. ↓, Castorani P. ↑,
78', Gonzalez F. 🟨,
81', 1 - 0, Gordillo L. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Frattini M. 🟨,
87', Banega T. ↓, Contin N. ↑,
87', Gordillo L. ↓, Birge M. ↑,
88', Guanini M. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Gimnasia y Tiro has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ferrocarril is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Ferrocarril Midland - the odds 3.21 are the expected chance of winning is 29.08%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnasia y Tiro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
31.05.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:1 ✺
24.05.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Gimnasia Jujuy	1:1 ✺
17.05.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - San Martín de Tucumán	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0 ✺
04.05.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Agropecuario Argentino	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TTWLL
- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera Nacional
31.05.26	Ferrocarril Midland - San Martín de Tucumán	2:0 ✺
23.05.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Agropecuario Argentino	2:0 ✺
09.05.26	Tristán Suárez - Ferrocarril Midland	1:3 ✺
03.05.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Güemes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWWW

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