Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 4

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella (Paraná)


	Patronato Parana		Ferrocarril Midland

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.85	3.4	Watch
	2.3	2.8	3.25
	2.32	2.78	3.30	Watch
	2.37	2.9	3.48
	2.42	2.73	3.45	Watch
	2.38	2.63	3.4
	2.34	2.70	3.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.43)	2.77 ↑ (2.71)	3.37 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patronato Parana
39.3%

Draw
33.3%

Ferrocarril Midland
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

34.5%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

34.1%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patronato Parana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Ferrocarril Midland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Patronato Parana - Ferrocarril Midland Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Patronato will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (1.10) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sosa A. (C) 2. Diaz G. 3. Genez N. 4. Rueda W. 6. Moreyra F. 5. Bravo F. 8. Miro A. 10. Barinaga J. P. 11. Pereyra V. L. 7. Rivero H. 9. Reynaga R.	1. Leguiza M. (G) 4. Diaz Laharque L. 2. Cepeda G. 6. Gonzalez F. 3. Casarico P. 5. Aguilar D. 8. Camano J. 7. Rogoski M. 10. Roseti M. (C) 11. Campana A. I. 9. Cao R.
Substitutes
20. Attis T. 18. Bravo B. 16. Enrique M. 14. Heredia F. 13. Piccioni S. 15. Picco A. 12. Rivasseau F. (G) 19. Soldano F. 17. Villarreal V.	20. Abruzzese M. 14. Castorani P. 17. Flores M. 12. Garcia Rossi S. (G) 13. Gigli L. 15. Guzman D. 16. Penepil M. 18. Perales J. 19. Vega J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Rivero H. ⚽, Miro A. (A),
35', Cepeda G. 🟨,
45', Moreyra F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Aguilar D. ↓, Perales J. ↑,
46', Rivero H. ↓, Attis T. ↑,
60', Genez N. ↓, Piccioni S. ↑,
62', Barinaga J. P. 🟨,
65', 1 - 1, Campana A. I. ⚽,
66', Campana A. I. 🟨,
67', Barinaga J. P. ↓, Enrique M. ↑,
70', Cao R. ↓, Guzman D. ↑,
79', Reynaga R. ↓, Soldano F. ↑,
79', Miro A. ↓, Heredia F. ↑,
80', Roseti M. 🟨,
88', Leguiza M. 🟨,
88', Piccioni S. 🟨,
89', Casarico P. ↓, Penepil M. ↑,
89', Campana A. I. ↓, Gigli L. ↑,
90+1', Penepil M. 🟨,
90+2', Roseti M. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

Federation decision.

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ferrocarril may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Patronato is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Patronato Parana - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.48%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Ferrocarril Midland - the odds 3.46 are the expected chance of winning is 27.02%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
14.06.26	Patronato Parana - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
07.06.26	Agropecuario Argentino - Patronato Parana	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Patronato Parana - Tristán Suárez	1:1 ✺
24.05.26	Güemes - Patronato Parana	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Patronato Parana - Chacarita Juniors	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TTTLW
- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera Nacional
13.06.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Atlanta Buenos Aires	1:2 ✺
05.06.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Ferrocarril Midland - San Martín de Tucumán	2:0 ✺
23.05.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Agropecuario Argentino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWLW

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