Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 5

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal da Malata (Ferrol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV, Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ferrol		CD Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.4	4.5
	1.72	3.55	4.35
	1.73	3.68	4.68
	2.42	2.03	5.88	Watch
	1.73	3.54	4.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.33)	3.24 ↓ (3.61)	4.78 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrol
51%

Draw
29.2%

CD Guadalajara
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

25.4%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

25.1%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferrol's performance.

CD Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and CD Guadalajara might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferrol that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+14.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that CD Guadalajara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ferrol - CD Guadalajara Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferrol (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Parera P. M. (G) 22. Mardones A. 3. Pujol E. 15. Zalaya A. 17. Ramon A. 7. Alvaro J. 8. Gorostidi A. 10. Pascu 23. Pena A. 11. Dacosta R. 9. Escobar A.	1. Zarco A. (G) 16. Cera 4. Ablanque J. 5. Gallardo D. 18. Martinez J. 17. Gil A. 22. Samuel 14. Tavares R. 7. Neskes 10. Amigo D. 24. Caropitche S. M.
Substitutes
4. Artetxe M. 21. Carballo D. 12. Chema 18. Concha D. 25. Diaz L. (G) 13. Fernandez C. G. (G) 24. Garcia A. 16. Garcia S. 6. Gelardo A. 20. Gimenez A. 14. Tejera S.	11. Alvarez U. 8. Calvo T. 9. Canizo A. 20. Diaz B. 3. Moreno A. 19. Munoz P. 21. Ramirez M. 15. Rodriguez V. 6. Rojo P. 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Tavares R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Neskes ↓, Alvarez U. ↑,
55', Gil A. ↓, Munoz P. ↑,
61', Cera 🟨,
64', Alvaro J. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
64', Escobar A. ↓, Gimenez A. ↑,
70', Munoz P. 🟨,
71', Dacosta R. ↓, Tejera S. ↑,
71', Pena A. ↓, Concha D. ↑,
75', Amigo D. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
75', Tavares R. ↓, Calvo T. ↑,
82', Gallardo D. 🟨,
87', Pascu ↓, Gelardo A. ↑,
87', Samuel ↓, Rojo P. ↑,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ferrol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ferrol is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.09.25	Lugo - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
17.09.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ferrol	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ferrol - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Ferrol - Celta de Vigo B	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWWWL
- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.09.25	Ponferradina - CD Guadalajara	1:3 ✺
14.09.25	CD Guadalajara - Unionistas de Salamanca	2:0 ✺
07.09.25	Celta de Vigo B - CD Guadalajara	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	CD Guadalajara - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
24.08.25	CD Guadalajara - Atlético Madrid B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWWLL

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