Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV, Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ponferradina		CD Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	1.9	3	3.8
				Watch
	1.95	3.15	3.8
	2.04	3.25	4.05
	1.85	2.90	5.27	Watch
	2	3.15	3.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.8)	3.09 ↓ (3.1)	4.18 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
47.7%

Draw
30.1%

CD Guadalajara
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

28.9%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

31.1%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

CD Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponferradina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Ponferradina - CD Guadalajara Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ponferradina will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Guadalajara will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Prieto A. (G) 21. Moreno D. 8. Aguilar Elizalde E. 2. Andujar D. 19. Lopez A. 17. Keita A. 5. Undabarrena E. 6. San Emeterio F. 10. Valle B. 9. Cortes J. 18. Vazquez B.	1. Zarco A. (G) 5. Gallardo D. 4. Ablanque J. 23. Casado J. 18. Martinez J. 22. Samuel 14. Tavares R. 17. Gil A. 20. Diaz B. 7. Neskes 24. Caropitche S. M.
Substitutes
30. Baeza B. 25. Barredo P. (G) 14. Fernandez X. 20. Ferrer P. 16. Frimpong E. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 12. Lian 4. Moltenis B. 11. Mula A. 3. Novoa G. 7. Sergio Benito	11. Alvarez U. 10. Amigo D. 8. Calvo T. 9. Canizo A. 16. Cera 3. Moreno A. 19. Munoz P. 6. Rojo P. 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Casado J. ↓, Cera ↑,
29', Andujar D. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Samuel ⚽,
38', San Emeterio F. 🟨,
41', Diaz B. 🟨,
43', Samuel 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Diaz B. ↓, Canizo A. ↑,
46', Aguilar Elizalde E. ↓, Sergio Benito ↑,
46', Vazquez B. ↓, Frimpong E. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Sergio Benito ⚽,
67', Valle B. ↓, Fernandez X. ↑,
71', Gil A. ↓, Munoz P. ↑,
71', Neskes ↓, Alvarez U. ↑,
72', Lopez A. 🟨,
73', Cortes J. ↓, Ferrer P. ↑,
73', San Emeterio F. ↓, Novoa G. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Munoz P. ⚽,
86', Samuel ↓, Rojo P. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 3, Caropitche S. M. ⚽,

Preview

Ponferradina is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Guadalajara has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ponferradina could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Ponferradina won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Ponferradina - Pontevedra	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Real Avilés - Ponferradina	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWLT
- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.25	CD Guadalajara - Unionistas de Salamanca	2:0 ✺
07.09.25	Celta de Vigo B - CD Guadalajara	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	CD Guadalajara - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
24.08.25	CD Guadalajara - Atlético Madrid B	0:1 ✺
19.08.25	Marchamalo - CD Guadalajara	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
12.11.22	CD Guadalajara - Ponferradina	2:1
Spanish LaLiga2
17.03.13	Ponferradina - CD Guadalajara	2:2
13.10.12	CD Guadalajara - Ponferradina	2:0

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