Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 32

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal da Malata (Ferrol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, RTVE Play, Teledeporte
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	Ferrol		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3
	2.18	3.2	3.1
	2.4	3.3	3.13
	2.04	3.52	3.39	Watch
	2.2	3	2.9
	2.3	3.14	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.2)	3.19 ↓ (3.29)	3.11 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrol
41.5%

Draw
28.9%

Real Madrid Castilla
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

28.2%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

28.6%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

The chances for Real Madrid Castilla have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Ferrol - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Parera P. M. (G) 22. Mardones A. 15. Zalaya A. 16. Garcia S. 4. Artetxe M. 8. Gorostidi A. 6. Gonzalez F. 7. Alvaro J. 10. Pascu 11. Dacosta R. 9. Escobar A.	25. Mestre S. (G) 17. Fortea J. 15. Martinez J. 3. Valdepenas V. 21. Aguado D. 8. Angel M. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 10. Palacios C. 20. Fortuny P. 29. Ortega J. 47. Ciria A.
Substitutes
19. Azkune E. 12. Chema 18. Concha D. 25. Diaz L. (G) 13. Fernandez C. G. (G) 24. Garcia A. 20. Gimenez A. 2. Miguel 5. Noriega J. 17. Ramon A. 21. Tavares M. 14. Tejera S.	23. Fati L. 18. Fettal R. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 2. Jimenez D. 30. Mesonero D. 6. Perea C. 4. Rivas M. 5. Serrano M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 9. Zuniga L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 4)
17', 0 - 1, Ciria A. ⚽,
27', 0 - 2, Ortega J. ⚽,
29', Zalaya A. ↓, Chema ↑,
34', Gorostidi A. 🟨,
37', 0 - 3, Palacios C. ⚽,
42', Martinez J. 🟨,
44', Valdepenas V. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 4, Fortuny P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Escobar A. ↓, Noriega J. ↑,
46', Alvaro J. ↓, Gimenez A. ↑,
48', Artetxe M. 🟨,
50', Cestero Sancho J. 🟨,
62', Cestero Sancho J. ↓, Perea C. ↑,
62', Ortega J. ↓, Iglesias Lois B. ↑,
68', Dacosta R. ↓, Concha D. ↑,
69', 0 - 5, Fortuny P. ⚽,
70', Ciria A. ↓, Fettal R. ↑,
71', Fettal R. 🟨,
79', Pascu ↓, Azkune E. ↑,
79', Angel M. ↓, Serrano M. ↑,
79', Palacios C. ↓, Jimenez D. ↑,
90', Zalaya A. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferrol won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Real Madrid Castilla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ferrol will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Ferrol won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferrol won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Racing Club Ferrol	6	3	1	2	7:5	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid Castilla - the odds 3.14 are the expected chance of winning is 29.57%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.04.26	CD Guadalajara - Ferrol	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Mérida AD - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Ferrol - Barakaldo	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Ourense CF - Ferrol	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Ferrol - Cacereño	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLTTW
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.04.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Celta de Vigo B	5:1 ✺
27.03.26	Barakaldo - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Zamora	2:2 ✺
14.03.26	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Arenteiro - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.09.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ferrol	0:1
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ferrol	2:1
01.08.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Ferrol	0:3
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.01.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Ferrol	0:0
04.09.22	Ferrol - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
26.10.19	Real Madrid Castilla - Ferrol	1:2
05.05.18	Real Madrid Castilla - Ferrol	3:0

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