Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 31

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+, RTVE Play, Teledeporte
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	Real Madrid Castilla		Celta de Vigo B

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.25	3.4
	2.02	3.25	3.5
	2.02	3.3	3.96
	1.95	3.35	3.86	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.3
	2.03	3.39	3.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.02)	3.27 ↓ (3.41)	3.59 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
46.3%

Draw
28.1%

Celta de Vigo B
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

27.2%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

26.3%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Celta de Vigo B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo B than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Celta de Vigo B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mestre S. (G) 2. Jimenez D. (C) 15. Martinez J. 23. Fati L. 3. Valdepenas V. 6. Perea C. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 20. Fortuny P. 28. Martin R. 29. Ortega J. 32. Navascues L.	13. Caio Barone (G) 2. Gavian P. 6. Meixus P. (C) 26. Rodriguez A. 3. Ribes K. 7. Gonzalez H. 32. Khayat A. 5. Burcio H. 11. Arcos A. 19. Marcos O. 9. Marin A.
Substitutes
21. Aguado D. 47. Ciria A. 18. Fettal R. 17. Fortea J. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 46. Rezola M. 4. Rivas M. 5. Serrano M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L.	21. Bilbao L. 16. Capdevila A. 1. Carrillo J. B. (G) 10. de la Iglesia D. 25. Gonzalez M. (G) 37. Kibet A. 23. Miller G. 14. Oliveras J. 27. Rodriguez N. 17. Somuah B. 4. Vazquez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Ortega J. (Own goal),
21', 1 - 1, Martinez J. ⚽,
37', Perea C. 🟨,
45', 2 - 1, Navascues L. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', 3 - 1, Valdepenas V. ⚽,
55', Martin R. ↓, Yanez D. ↑,
55', Navascues L. ↓, Aguado D. ↑,
60', 4 - 1, Ortega J. ⚽,
61', Meixus P. ↓, Oliveras J. ↑,
61', Khayat A. ↓, Kibet A. ↑,
61', Marin A. ↓, Somuah B. ↑,
67', 5 - 1, Ortega J. ⚽,
71', Ortega J. ↓, Serrano M. ↑,
71', Martinez J. ↓, Zuniga L. ↑,
72', Gonzalez H. ↓, Rodriguez N. ↑,
72', Arcos A. ↓, Capdevila A. ↑,
72', Aguado D. 🟨,
79', Valdepenas V. ↓, Fettal R. ↑,
87', 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is considered a favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:5. (average 1.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid Castilla won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid Castilla - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 45.92%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.03.26	Barakaldo - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Zamora	2:2 ✺
14.03.26	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Arenteiro - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
01.03.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LTWTL
- Celta de Vigo B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.03.26	Celta de Vigo B - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Arenteiro - Celta de Vigo B	1:1 ✺
13.03.26	Celta de Vigo B - Tenerife	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	CD Guadalajara - Celta de Vigo B	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Celta de Vigo B - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.12.25	Celta de Vigo B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0
15.04.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Celta de Vigo B	3:0
29.10.22	Celta de Vigo B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
08.01.20	Celta de Vigo B - Real Madrid Castilla	0:1
09.03.19	Real Madrid Castilla - Celta de Vigo B	2:0
21.10.18	Celta de Vigo B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1
24.03.18	Real Madrid Castilla - Celta de Vigo B	0:1

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