Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 29

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Real Madrid Castilla		Zamora

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.1
	2	3.1	3.3
	2.12	3.15	3.25
	2.29	3.11	3.2
	2.2	3.28	3.22	Watch
	2.15	3	3
	2.18	3.33	3.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (2.11)	3.17 ↓ (3.23)	3.18 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
42.5%

Draw
28.8%

Zamora
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.1%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

27.6%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Zamora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zamora than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Zamora Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mestre S. (G) 17. Fortea J. 4. Rivas M. 23. Fati L. 5. Serrano M. 20. Fortuny P. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 10. Palacios C. (C) 7. Yanez D. 29. Ortega J. 47. Ciria A.	1. Sobron F. (G) 2. Luengo Herrera L. M. 5. Ruiz E. 7. Kike 9. Losada M. 10. Ramos C. (C) 16. Lozano M. 19. Abde 20. Codina M. 22. Sancho J. 23. Lopez S.
Substitutes
38. Diego 11. Iglesias Lois B. 2. Jimenez D. 28. Martin R. 30. Mesonero D. 46. Rezola M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 3. Valdepenas V. 9. Zuniga L.	4. Athuman I. 15. Buron L. 17. Carbonell J. 6. Garcia M. 21. Lopez M. 3. Merchan D. 14. Moreno D. 13. Pereda A. (G) 11. Romero Morillo A. 27. Sy M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Palacios C. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', Abde 🟨,
53', 2 - 0, Ciria A. ⚽,
56', Losada M. ↓, Buron L. ↑,
56', Abde ↓, Carbonell J. ↑,
60', Yanez D. ↓, Mesonero D. ↑,
60', Ciria A. ↓, Valdepenas V. ↑,
70', Ramos C. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
70', Sancho J. ↓, Merchan D. ↑,
72', Fortea J. ↓, Jimenez D. ↑,
78', Lopez S. ↓, Romero Morillo A. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Codina M. ⚽,
84', Palacios C. ↓, Martin R. ↑,
84', Ortega J. ↓, Zuniga L. ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Garcia M. ⚽,
90+5', Cestero Sancho J. 🟨,
90+5', Mesonero D. 🟨,
90+9', 🟨,
90+9', 🟥,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 7 and 6).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Real Madrid Castilla will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Madrid Castilla won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Zamora	6	3	1	2	8:6	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid Castilla - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 42.93%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Zamora - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 28.99%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.03.26	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Arenteiro - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
01.03.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Real Avilés - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTLTW
- Zamora CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.03.26	Zamora - Arenteiro	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Real Avilés - Zamora	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Zamora - CD Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Zamora	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Zamora - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.12.25	Zamora - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2

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