Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 27

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio de Espiñedo (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Arenteiro		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.1
	2.35	2.95	2.8
	2.4	3	2.92
	2.51	3.05	2.99
	2.45	3.06	2.99	Watch
	2.5	2.75	2.7
	2.29	3.12	3.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.6)	2.99 ↑ (2.98)	2.96 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arenteiro
38.4%

Draw
30.6%

Real Madrid Castilla
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

30.4%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

30.1%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arenteiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arenteiro than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Arenteiro - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Arenteiro (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Arenteiro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Garcia D. (G) 22. Sanchez J. 16. Lasure D. 3. Lohr L. 4. Falcon E. 6. Val B. 21. Lopez A. 10. Chuca 25. Bastida A. 15. Moreno D. 18. Mingo V.	1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 4. Rivas M. 23. Fati L. 21. Aguado D. 8. Moran M. A. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 20. Fortuny P. 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L. 11. Iglesias Lois B.
Substitutes
19. Alpha M. 1. Alvin (G) 11. Cuellar J. 7. Ferreiro D. 8. Gonzalez D. 23. Kandoussi B. 17. Molina A. 2. Moya P. 9. Ramon N. 14. Safrai	48. Ciria A. 17. Fortea J. 37. Gines A. 28. Martin R. 29. Ortega J. 6. Perea C. 5. Serrano M. 13. Sunico G. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Rivas M. ⚽, Aguado D. (A),
36', 1 - 1, Mingo V. ⚽, Moreno D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', Chuca ↓, Ramon N. ↑,
65', Fati L. 🟨,
66', 2 - 1, Moreno D. ⚽,
68', Fortuny P. ↓, Ciria A. ↑,
75', 🟨,
78', Sanchez J. ↓, Ferreiro D. ↑,
78', Ramon N. ↓, Alpha M. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Martin R. ⚽,
90', Lopez A. ↓, Cuellar J. ↑,
90', Bastida A. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
90+4', Mingo V. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Arenteiro is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Real Madrid Castilla's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arenteiro won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Arenteiro
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
28.02.26	Ourense CF - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Arenteiro - Tenerife	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Talavera de la Reina - Arenteiro	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Arenteiro - Real Avilés	6:3 ✺
30.01.26	Arenteiro - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLWT
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.03.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Real Avilés - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Pontevedra - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Osasuna B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenteiro	2:0

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