Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 21

Date: 8 August 2025, Friday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Ferroviária		Amazonas

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.9	Watch
	1.93	3.1	3.8
	2.12	3	3.55
	2.13	3.15	4
	1.30	4.88	10.43	Watch
	2	3.1	4
	2.08	3.03	3.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.08)	3.32 ↑ (3.12)	4.8 ↑ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
50.2%

Draw
29.4%

Amazonas
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

30%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

31%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferroviária's performance.

Amazonas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amazonas than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Ferroviária - Amazonas Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Ferroviária (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 5. Ricardinho 13. Gustavo Medina 8. Alencar 35. Netinho 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 10. Fabricio Daniel 77. Juninho 92. Carlao 66. Edson Lucas	1. Pedro Caracoci (G) 30. Castrillon N. 14. Ivan Alvarino 6. Fabiano (C) 35. Digao 5. Vasquez L. 26. Victor Hugo 29. Torres D. 11. Torres J. 7. Ramirez K. 9. Luan Silva
Substitutes
20. Albano 80. Fabio 95. Filipe Costa (G) 25. Ian Luccas 43. Joao Ramos 7. Kevin 9. Ronaldo 29. Tarik 39. Thayllon 37. Thiago Lopes 57. Wesley Pomba 31. Ze Mario	57. Diego Borges 21. Erick Varao 17. Guilherme Xavier 19. Henrique Almeida 33. Joao Lopes (G) 3. Philippe Guimaraes 10. Rafael Tavares 20. Vagner 13. Viera S. 27. Wendell 22. Zabala D.
Coaches
Vinicius Bergantin	Marcio Zanardi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Carlao ⚽, Lucas Rodrigues (A),
13', Torres J. ↓, Henrique Almeida ↑,
32', Juninho ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
45+2', Castrillon N. 🟨,
45+4', Gustavo Medina 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Victor Hugo ↓, Rafael Tavares ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Henrique Almeida ⚽, Rafael Tavares (A),
53', Alencar 🟨,
55', Torres D. 🟨,
61', Luan Silva ↓, Vagner ↑,
61', Torres D. ↓, Erick Varao ↑,
62', Alencar ↓, Albano ↑,
78', Edson Lucas ↓, Ze Mario ↑,
78', Fabricio Daniel ↓, Thayllon ↑,
78', Carlao ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
82', Vasquez L. 🟨,
84', Vasquez L. ↓, Wendell ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Thayllon ⚽, Lucas Rodrigues (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Ferroviária is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Ferroviária: Erik Nascimento (Inactive) Maycon (Injury) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)

There will not play in Amazonas: Akapo C. (Inactive) Alyson (Inactive) Dener (Inactive) Henrique Almeida (Inactive) Kiko (Inactive) Rafael Vitor (Yellow Cards) Thomas Luciano (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Denilson (Inactive) Eric Melo (Inactive) Gustavo Jundi (Inactive)

There are questionable in Amazonas: Joao Lopes (Inactive) Rafael Tavares (Inactive) Ze Gabriel (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
01.08.25	Remo - Ferroviária	0:2 ✺
26.07.25	Ferroviária - Operário Ferroviario	0:0 ✺
22.07.25	Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
18.07.25	Ferroviária - Athletic Club	1:2 ✺
13.07.25	Criciúma - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WTTLL
- Amazonas FC
Brazilian Serie B
02.08.25	Amazonas - Goiás	2:2 ✺
27.07.25	Coritiba - Amazonas	1:1 ✺
23.07.25	Amazonas - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Amazonas - Botafogo SP	3:0 ✺
15.07.25	Cuiabá - Amazonas	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
12.04.25	Amazonas - Ferroviária	0:0

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