Match Info

Paulista A2 - First stage - Round 12

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Ferroviária		Atlético Monte Azul

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.9	5.5
	1.52	3.7	5.5	Watch
	1.57	3.52	5.84	Watch
	1.53	3.5	5.75
	1.53	3.52	6.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 (1.54)	3.63 ↓ (3.79)	5.74 ↑ (5.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
59.1%

Draw
25%

Atlético Monte Azul
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.5%

24.2%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

23.5%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Atlético Monte Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Atlético Monte Azul aligns with the current prediction.

Ferroviária - Atlético Monte Azul Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Cantarelli M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A2 (Second stage: ) and 13).

Ferroviária has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Monte Azul's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Ferroviária is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
18.02.26	São José-SP - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Ferroviária - Sertãozinho	3:2 ✺
11.02.26	Água Santa - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Ferroviária - Piracicaba	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Ferroviária - São Bento	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWLLW
- Atlético Monte Azul
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
18.02.26	Atlético Monte Azul - Osasco Sporting	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Taubaté - Atlético Monte Azul	3:3 ✺
11.02.26	Grêmio Prudente - Atlético Monte Azul	0:0 ✺
02.02.26	Piracicaba - Atlético Monte Azul	2:0 ✺
28.01.26	Atlético Monte Azul - Votuporanguense	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
17.01.24	Atlético Monte Azul - Ferroviária	1:1

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