Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 2

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet


	Ferroviária		Botafogo PB

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.52	2.92	2.72	Watch
	2.64	3.09	2.95
	2.75	3.03	2.66	Watch
	2.4	2.8	2.8
	2.41	2.93	2.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.27)	2.95 ↓ (3.03)	2.81 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
36.1%

Draw
31.1%

Botafogo PB
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

30.8%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

29.5%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Botafogo PB has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferroviária, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo PB than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Botafogo PB, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ferroviária - Botafogo PB Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Botafogo PB will win (votes: 6 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo PB (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Denis Junior (G) 8. Alencar 38. Allison 17. Cantarelli M. 9. Denilson 27. Nicolas Silva 30. Raoni 6. Rhuan 5. Ricardinho (C) 25. Vinni Faria 40. Ze Vitor	23. Max Walef (G) 77. Bastos R. 16. Bull 22. Dudu 12. Erick 11. Felipe Azevedo 8. Igor Maduro 14. Igor Morais 5. Jhonata Varela 10. Nene (C) 3. Yan Souto
Substitutes
10. Albano 24. Carvalho I. (G) 32. dos Santos A. 36. Douglas Skilo 29. Eduardo Oliveira 22. Felipe Rodrigues 4. Guilherme Ferreira 33. Pedro Estevam 18. Rafael Carillho 23. Schilling Arthur 19. Thiago M. 11. Vitor Barreto	29. Anderson Chaves 2. Diogo Mateus 7. Dudu Hatamoto 88. Gabriel Tota 18. Giovanni 31. Gustavo 9. Henrique Dourado 33. Julio Vaz 21. Leandro Mathias (G) 35. Octavio 6. Patric Calmon 20. Thallyson
Coaches
de Paulo Fortes V.	Lisca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', Bull 🟨,
24', Nicolas Silva ↓, Felipe Rodrigues ↑,
31', Vinni Faria 🟨,
37', Ricardinho 🟨,
42', Bastos R. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Igor Maduro ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bull ↓, Patric Calmon ↑,
58', 0 - 2, Felipe Azevedo ⚽,
62', Allison ↓, Albano ↑,
63', Alencar ↓, Vitor Barreto ↑,
63', Vinni Faria ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
63', Cantarelli M. ↓, Thiago M. ↑,
73', Nene ↓, Julio Vaz ↑,
80', Douglas Skilo 🟨,
88', Bastos R. ↓, Henrique Dourado ↑,
88', Igor Maduro ↓, Diogo Mateus ↑,
90+6', Felipe Azevedo ↓, Gustavo ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Ferroviaria: 23.95%

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.99%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
08.04.26	Sertãozinho - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
04.04.26	Maringá - Ferroviária	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
29.03.26	Ferroviária - São José-SP	4:1 ✺
25.03.26	São José-SP - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	Ferroviária - Sertãozinho	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLWWL
- Botafogo PB
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.04.26	Sousa - Botafogo PB	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
04.04.26	Botafogo PB - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.03.26	Botafogo PB - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	2:2 ✺
25.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Botafogo PB	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
21.03.26	Botafogo PB - Sousa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
24.08.24	Botafogo PB - Ferroviária	2:0

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